Foghorn Leghorn & A Radish Would Beat Obama...So Will Romney

Those of you who read this blog regularly know that I had endorsed Newt Gingrich for President back when Newt had a snowball's chance in July of winning the nomination.  Today, so many Newt fans are still clamoring for Newt to somehow deafeat Romney for the nomination (because they're apparently really bad at math). These same individuals are loudly proclaiming that Mitt can't beat Obama.

They are, of course, wrong. The reality of the situation is that a Radish could beat Obama, as could Foghorn Leghorn. You know who else can and will beat Obama?  Mitt Romney.

Need proof? Over the past week the first reliable head to head polls have come out. (I say reliable because head to head polls are not necessarily trustworthy while the primaries continue, as often people are bad at mentally suspending their own ideal situation to consider the reality of another choice they may have to make. For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that means when asked "Who would you vote for in a hypothetical matchup between Romeny and Obama" they choose "other" because they preferred Santorum or Gingrich or whoever.) Gallup and Rasmussen have given their first week of rolling polling data, and (surprise surprise), Romney is beating Obama by 4 points (which is outside the margin for error).

According to Rasmussen, if the election was held today, Romney would defeat Obama 48% to 44%.  According to Gallup, if the election was held today, Romney would defeat Obama by 48% to 44% as well.  Considering the documented history of certain Drive-By Media sources to used cooked polls and poor samples of the population or just polls of "adults" to make their candidate look stronger, Rasmussen and Gallup will remain our standard bearers here for the 2012 Election.

Friends, stop buying the false narrative. Believe me, Romney will beat Obama. So let's focus on supporting him and pushing him to the right instead of panicking.  Remember, friends, the Democrats are running Obama!

Why I Can Live With Romney

Now that Mitt Romney has locked up the Republican nomination, it’s time to explain why I can live with Mitt Romney.  I’ve been saying through this entire campaign that I can live with Romney. Here’s why:

-          In 2008, Mitt Romney was the “Conservative Alternative” to John McCain. As a matter of fact, in 2008, I voted for Mitt Romney in the New York State Primary.  (At the time my choices were John McCain, Mitt Romney, Mike Huckabee, and Ron Paul.)  I cast that vote because I believed Romney was the most conservative candidate available.  This time, there were even more conservative candidates, so I supported one of those. That doesn’t make Mitt a liberal. It just makes him less conservative. 

Do not confuse “less conservative” for liberal, my friends. Romney is by a large margin more conservative than John McCain in 2008, Bob Dole in 1996, George H.W. Bush in 1988 and 1992, and Gerald Ford in 1976, and quite possibly George W. Bush in 2000 and 2004.  That my friends is a dramatic shift to the right by the GOP to have Mitt Romney as the “Establishment Candidate.”

-          Mitt Romney is a businessman.  He has run multiple businesses including pulling many proverbial cars out of ditches.  This nation needs a Mr. Fix-It for this economy.  A man who is a business turn-around specialist is a good choice. Romney has the business sense to turn this nation around.

-          Romney has a perception problem. I addressed it above.  People think he’s a “moderate.” People think he’s not as conservative. Most Tea Partiers I speak to in person and online think Mitt is another John McCain.  There is a concern that Mitt won’t be able to ignite the necessary passion under conservatives to get them to fight for him.  Not to get Tea Partiers and other conservatives to VOTE for him…the Republican nominee WILL get the conservative vote…but to get Tea Partiers and conservatives to FIGHT for him.  He needs us to get deeply in his corner to volunteer, to knock on doors, to persuade our friends and neighbors to back him.  I hear you all asking yourselves “OK Chris, what the heck is the point?”

Here it is, friends: Mitt is going to have to choose a very conservative running mate. A Bobby Jindall, a Rand Paul, a Paul Ryan, a Nikki Haley, or a (genuine shivers of excitement) Marco Rubio.  That running mate is going to be the heir apparent in 2020.  Quite possibly the incumbent Vice President and the mighty conservative voice we’ve all been hoping for. Yes, a little bit later, but still that conservative we want and need.  Even if Mitt is a stopgap for a period of time, it’ll be a stopgap with a defined conclusion.

-          Mitt Romney will cut taxes.  Governor Romney has promised a 10% tax cut for absolutely all tax brackets across the board.  Not just certain groups of taxpayers, but every single one of us.  Not a piddling little 2% cut in payroll taxes.  10% of our income taxes.  If you’re in the 35% bracket, you’ll pay 25%.  If you’re in the 25% bracket, you’ll be at 15%. If you’re in the 15% bracket, you’re down to 5%. If you’re in the 10% bracket, you’re no longer required to pay taxes.

To an American family with an income of $50,000, that means you’re now going to have an extra $100 plus in your pocket every month.  Not the $10 or so you’re getting from a payroll tax holiday. Another $100 in an American family’s pocket is a big deal.  It means the ability to go out to dinner or buy more new clothes. It means the ability to buy more wants.  That means a lot. 

To a small business owner who makes $250,000 per year and is a sole proprietorship filing their business taxes personally it means a whole lot more.  A 10% cut in taxes means $62,500.  Do you know what that is?  A manager and one full-time employee and one part-time employee.  Or two full time employees if that owner chooses to continue to run the business themselves. What if ten thousand small businesses in America have that?  That means twenty thousand jobs.  And you know what? It means more than that, because there are more than ten thousand small businesses in America.  There are nearly 25 million of them, most of whom are sole proprietorships.  That will make a huge difference in hiring.

-          Mitt Romney is not Barack Obama. Ultimately, we need Somebody Else in 2012.  I, and so many other conservatives, believe a second Obama term would be disastrous for this country.  Without the check of another election, President Obama will brazenly ignore the Constitution and the best interests of this nation even more than he has already.  He’s already promised Russia to compromise our security once he’s re-elected. He also would likely get one to three Supreme Court appointees and dozens of other lower court justices.  He would be able to put a hugely liberal judiciary in place to legislate from the bench.

I can live with Romney, my friends.  I think you will find you can too. It’s time we get behind Romney, because ultimately we must defeat Obama.

Santorum's Out, Now What?

Tuesday, Senator Rick Santorum "suspended his Presidential campaign." (Real world translation: Ended campaign in all but name so he can raise money still to pay off debt.) Two questions come from his news.  One, why did Santorum withdrawal? Two, more importantly, now what?

Let's try to conject about the reasons for Senator Santorum's withdrawal first, shall we?  There are two likely reasons for this drop out, and I do not see any other real potentials. One, and this is most likely, the Santorum Campaign has run out of money. This is pretty much the only reason why candidates drop out of races. It likely explains why Newt Gingrich has outlasted Santorum...he's still got cash in the coffers.   The second potential is the one that I hope is NOT the case: little Bella Santorum's health is worse than publicly known.  If this is the case, I shan't dwell on it save to say I hope that's not the issue.

Either way, the Senator's Presidential campaign is over. Conservative reactions can be broken into three camps: The Bridge Jumpers, the DelusiNewts, and the Live Withs.

For the record, I'm a Live With.  I can live with Mitt Romney as our nominee, as I've said so many times. I can live with Mittens with more ease than I put up with John McCain four years ago, because Romney is certainly more conservative than John McCain. McCain is a genuine fence sitter RINO.  Romney is definitely about 15 degrees right of center. (I would say that Santorum is about 50 degrees right of center, Newt is about 65 degrees right of center, and Ron Paul is about 85 degrees above the clouds in Happy Imagination Land.)

The Bridge Jumpers are the polar opposite of the Live Withs. They believe that Santorum was Reagan Part II, that Romney is Gerald Ford Part II, who believe deep down in the depths of their hearts that a Romney nomination will equal an Obama re-election. (As if Obama was somehow a strong candidate if we run only a modestly conservative candiate?)  These people are lining up at the Brooklyn Bridge to jump off it.  (They're intermingling with my fellow Mets fans, by the way).

Then there are the DelusiNewts. These are the people who have spent the past few months calling for Santorum to get out of the race to pave the way for Newt. (Ignoring the silliness of saying "Hey guy in close second place, get out of the distant third place guy's way!)  The DelusiNewts are now throwing a party, believing that Santorum's exit will pave the way for Gingrich's big second coming to ultimately win the 90% of the remaining votes to beat Mittens. (I think you have a better chance of seeing my aforementioned New York Mets shocking the world and winning the World Series.)

I know, some of you are waiting for an answer to the "now what?" question.  Here it is, friends: Be rational, and join us me as a Live With.

I'll be taking time in the coming days to explain in greater detail why I can live with Mitt, and why, above all else, we must defeat Barack Obama. The thing that would be the biggest travesty to hit America in 2012 would not be a Romney Administration.  It would be a second Obama Administration.  Maybe Romney would just be a stop gap, but you know what? I'll take a stop gap! (Especially knowing that Mitt will absolutely have to choose a Vice President like Paul Ryan or...genuine shivers of excitement...Marco Rubio; because that VP will likely be the next Republican nominee after Romney.)

Either way, friends, I am confident that, in the likely event we nominate Romney, we will be looking at President Romney. And I can live with that.

Mitt's Not Inevitable, But He's Getting There

The Romney campaign has spent most of the Republican Primary campaign telling us Mittens is inevitably going to be the nominee. He's not inevitable, yet...but he's getting there.

Some Tea Partiers have flown into a state of complete panic, others have actually come around to the idea and are accepting the idea of a Romney candidacy. Those who are in complete panic need to step back and breath for a moment. They need to stop with the claims that Romney is worse than Obama. It's a ridiculous point. Mittens may not be as conservatives as we hoped, but he's not a radical socialist, either.

Then there are those who believe Mittens is the only candidate who can beat Obama.  There's also those who believe Mittens couldn't beat Obama.  I've stated more times than I can enumerate that Mittens would beat Obama, as would Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Ron Paul, and a radish.

But Mittens isn't yet the inevitable nominee. I know he's saying that Senator Santorum can't mathematically beat him, same for Gingrich. This isn't QUITE true, but it is unlikely. It's also rather possible that Mittens can't get the magic number of 1,140 delegates. With the large number of conservative delegates that will be in Tampa, it's very possible Newt or Santorum to be the choice of a brokered convention.

Ultimately the game isn't over. It might not be over until the convention. Either way, let the fur fly now, but friends, we must back the GOP nominee once all is said and done. Even if it's a stopgap candidate like Mittens.  Especially because Mittens is going to need to take a dyed in the wool conservative for his running mate. So even if Mittens is a stopgap, his VP would be next in line. It's better to stop Obama, even if we can't fully implement the level of conservative policies we need. So let's back up the GOP nominee, even if it's Mittens. Either way, remember, the Democrats are going to run Obama.

A Brokered GOP Convention?

It’s been almost a rallying cry amongst some conservatives, who believe that the Republican Field hasn’t had any “true” conservatives. (For the record, I disagree…I think there are two solid conservatives and a libertarian who is far closer to conservative than most moderate Republicans.)  Yet as long as we have both Gingrich and Santorum in this race splitting the conservative vote, the possibility of a brokered convention exists.

So what exactly is a “brokered convention?”  To win the Republican nomination, a candidate needs to receive at least 1,144 delegates.  If no candidate receives that magic number of delegates, it then falls to the total field of delegates to nominate a candidate.  There are a series of ballots cast. The first ballot is the vote of the pledged delegates are released from their obligation to vote for the candidate who they were pledged to support. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL that means Mitt Romney delegates no longer need to vote for Romney, Ron Paul delegates no longer need to vote for Paul, etc).

Here’s the thing: A brokered convention isn’t limited to those who are currently in the field. The reality is any Republican of legal age and of natural born citizenship is eligible to be nominated once the convention becomes brokered.  So go ahead and put on your Happy Imagination Hat for a minute and let your minds fantasize about who could be drafted as the Republican nominee in a brokered convention. Paul Ryan? Sarah Palin? Chris Christie? Bobby Jindal? (Legitimate shiver of excitement) Marco Rubio?  Sure, these are all possibilities.

Of course, those who are screaming for a brokered convention as a route to a more conservative candidate are missing the other possibility: that the GOP establishment picks a wimpier, more moderate establishment candidate and nominates someone like a Jeb Bush (talk about a gift to Obama…he’s already going to run against Bush anyway, so if the opponent’s name is genuinely Bush, I can only imagine).

More importantly, friends, and here’s the reality of history: Brokered Conventions in the past have tended to choose from the existing field of candidates.  Chances are good that we’re going to be looking at Mittens, Santorum, or Gingrich either way.  Usually you end up with a “compromise candidate,” but I have no idea who that compromise would be.  Clearly the first ballot vote will almost certainly be between Romney and Santorum.  Gingrich is hardly a compromise between the two, and Ron Paul isn’t going to be nominated by the Republican Party.

As we sit now, a brokered convention remains unlikely, but it could be less unlikely than any time since 1976 in the Republican Party.  As a history buff I consider it a fascinating possibility.  As a conservative, I would love to see a Sarah Palin or a Paul Ryan or (insert conservative here) win over Mittens. I’d also like to see Santorum or Gingrich win over Mittens.  Most importantly I want to see ANY REPUBLICAN defeat Obama. A brokered convention? Good idea in a perfect world. But I don’t live in a perfect world. I live in the Real World.