Romney Nearly Tied with Women in Swing States

Barack Obama's leads are evaporating with key demographics, at least if you believe the polls. (I for one believe that the polls are now beginning to reflect reality after months of cooked polls.)  According to a USA Today/Gallup Poll published earlier this week, Mitt Romney leads the President 50 to 46% in the Swing States. (Nationally, Gallup's 7-Day Tracking Poll has Romney leading the President by 7%).

But there are some further key demographic details where Romney is really setting himself up for victory.

- Romney maintains his solid lead with male voters in the Swing States, ahead of the President 52% to 44% (that's a 8% lead for those of you from Palm Beach County, FL).

- Romney is now within 1 point of the President with female voters, trailing the President by merely 49% to 48%.


- Romney is leading Obama 46% to 36% with Independents according to the other most recent swing state poll, POLITICO/George Washington University Battleground Poll (since the USA Today/Gallup poll did not give this particular breakdown). Just to give you a rough idea, the President would need to win 83% of the undecided Independents to win Independents (and that by 1%). That's simply not going to happen. (Remember, historically undecided voters this late break hard for the challenger).

Remember when women were Obama's victory firewall? Yeah, about that. The President is ostensibly tied with Governor Romney. He's also losing men by 8% and Independents by 10%. This is bad, bad news for the President.

I will go on record right now: If the President only wins women by 1%, loses men by 8% and loses Independents by 10%, do you know what we'll be calling Mitt Romney come November 7th? Mr. President-Elect.

Real Clear Politics Unrelable: Old Polls, Skewed Polls

Please note all polls quoted herein are from the morning of Wednesday, October 10th. The Internet has since trolled me yet again with RCP updating their polls to remove some old ones.

Something old, something new, something borrowed, something skewed. With the exception of the borrowed, that's the makeup of the Real Clear Politics average, aka the "poll of polls."

Before I continue, I'd like to say that I use Real Clear Politics (RCP) a lot. As a source for a blog, it's phenomenal. It compiles basically every poll published anywhere in America leading up to the election. Furthermore, I'd like to note that I am not directly accusing RCP of intentional deception. I'm not exonerating them, either.  I will, however, give RCP the benefit of the doubt on this, and simply assume it for the sake of today's article that the problems with these averages is a case of "a chef is only as good as his ingredients."

But there remains a clear skew created by these polls by certain issues. The first is old polls. Let me give you a few examples. Let's start with the general election average:

Do you perchance see the issue with this CNN poll I've highlighted? It's nearly two weeks old, and dates to before the game-changing Presidential Debate on 10/4.The Politico poll isn't quite as old but all data was gathered ahead of the first Presidential Debate.  So here we have two old polls, both with Obama winning (albeit marginally) that keep Mitt Romney's lead smaller. Take those two polls out of the average, you see Mitt Romney not with a 0.8% lead, but a 2.25% lead in the average of the four polls since the debate.

Here's an average from the swing state of Pennsylvania:

So let's compare. We've got two polls from 2-3 weeks ago showing Obama with an average lead of 9.5%.  Then we have two polls from the last week with an average lead of 2.5% for Obama.  Huge swing of 7%. Yet, due to RCP's average, they have Pennsylvania as "leaning Obama." In the last week, the two polls we have show Obama's lead as within the margin of error. It's a tossup, friends. Governor Romney can win Pennsylvania.

One more old before we go into skewed:

Here's another highly important swing-state. It's considered "Leaning Obama" based on the RCP average. However, except for last week's PPP Poll, the other four polls are 2-4 weeks old.  Clearly, according to the Democrat Public Policy Polling, Obama's lead is down to 2% (within the poll's margin of error).

Now let's talk about what we've been discussing for months on Biblical Conservatism: Skewed polls.

Quick reminder: Ohio's voter identification is +1 Republican.  We Ask America's sample was +4% Democrat (5% skew to Democrats). ARG oversampled Democrats by 9% (10% skew to Democrats). CNN/Opinion Research oversampled +2% (3% total skew to Democrats). Survey USA oversampled Democrats by 4% (5% total skew to Democrats).

These are simply snapshots, friends. But the point I am making is important. The RCP Average is packed often with outdated polls and skewed polls, treated as though they were up to date or as accurate as the other polls. It creates a false impression of the reality of the situation. While Real Clear Politics is a good site, please don't get me wrong, but the average is simply not an accurate reflection of the electorate.


To my regular readers: With the Vice Presidential Debate tonight, I will be writing my reaction to that event tomorrow and publishing tomorrow's blog by about 1 pm.

Liberals Panic After Pew Poll

In case you missed it, the liberal Pew Research Center published a poll showing Governor Mitt Romney taking a 4% lead over President Barack Obama. Combine that with ties in Rasmussen and Gallup's tracking polls on Monday, Obama's lead dropping to 1% in the Politico Battleground Poll, you've got a full on panic from the Left.

Do you remember when the Drive-By Media and liberal pundits were ridiculing those of us who questioned such polls as...oh, I don't know...Pew Research Center's September poll sample which had a +10% Democrat sample. Then, when the same Pew Research Center publishes a poll with a +5% Republican sample. Now, given the climate in this country, what's more likely, do you think? A +10% Democrat turnout or a +5% Republican turnout? (2004, for example, saw a +4% Republican turnout, and Republican engagement is at least as strong this election as 2004.)

(Dramatized Liberal) POLLS ARE COOKED!  (All of a sudden!) HOW DARE THEY! No, don't remember how we trumpeted Pew's accuracy. That's not important! It's like Rasmussen now! (No, don't pay attention that Rasmussen and Pew were tied for most accurate polls in 2008.) It's not fair! Wah wah wah!

Friends, you who read Biblical Conservatism every day know I've been telling you for months upon months that Romney was going to win and these polls with oversampled Democrats were just hiding reality. Now, after Governor Romney went and hit a home run in the first debate, Pew can't hide the reality. So now, we're seeing the real electorate being predicted. And Obama's lead has disappeared. Now Romney is winning.

And now, the Left is in a pure panic. They don't know what to do with themselves! They're talking about Big Bird. That's what they're reduced to, friends. That and saying Governor Romney lied in the debate. That's what they are reduced to doing.

We are about to win, gang. Get ready for it. WE'RE GONNA WIN!