Showing posts with label 2012 Predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2012 Predictions. Show all posts

Foghorn Leghorn & A Radish Would Beat Obama...So Will Romney

Those of you who read this blog regularly know that I had endorsed Newt Gingrich for President back when Newt had a snowball's chance in July of winning the nomination.  Today, so many Newt fans are still clamoring for Newt to somehow deafeat Romney for the nomination (because they're apparently really bad at math). These same individuals are loudly proclaiming that Mitt can't beat Obama.

They are, of course, wrong. The reality of the situation is that a Radish could beat Obama, as could Foghorn Leghorn. You know who else can and will beat Obama?  Mitt Romney.

Need proof? Over the past week the first reliable head to head polls have come out. (I say reliable because head to head polls are not necessarily trustworthy while the primaries continue, as often people are bad at mentally suspending their own ideal situation to consider the reality of another choice they may have to make. For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that means when asked "Who would you vote for in a hypothetical matchup between Romeny and Obama" they choose "other" because they preferred Santorum or Gingrich or whoever.) Gallup and Rasmussen have given their first week of rolling polling data, and (surprise surprise), Romney is beating Obama by 4 points (which is outside the margin for error).

According to Rasmussen, if the election was held today, Romney would defeat Obama 48% to 44%.  According to Gallup, if the election was held today, Romney would defeat Obama by 48% to 44% as well.  Considering the documented history of certain Drive-By Media sources to used cooked polls and poor samples of the population or just polls of "adults" to make their candidate look stronger, Rasmussen and Gallup will remain our standard bearers here for the 2012 Election.

Friends, stop buying the false narrative. Believe me, Romney will beat Obama. So let's focus on supporting him and pushing him to the right instead of panicking.  Remember, friends, the Democrats are running Obama!

Gallup State Shows Obama Likely a One Term President

To my regular readers: In an effort to provide quality analysis on the Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri contests from February 7th, I decided to wait to post my reactions until tomorrow, allowing solid numbers to be in place.  Thank you as always for reading Biblical Conservatism!

Time again for some good, hard numbers, and my friends, for those of us who want to see Obama as a one term President, the numbers are encouraging. While the Drive-By Media is muddled in national polls or head to head matchups (which don't really matter until the candidate is chosen),

Real Clear Politics has their current electoral map with ten states currently solidly in Obama's camp (worth 175 Electoral Votes) and another five leaning Obama; and twenty states currently solidly in the Republican camp (worth 159 Electoral Votes).  There are a couple erroneous predictions in my estimation, however, in the "Lean Obama" camp that I believe are worth noting as well as a couple in the "Tossup" category that I believe lean Republican.

RCP is claiming that Oregonn (7 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5 electoral votes) lean Obama.  Based on Gallup's 2011 Job Approval - State by State, however, the President's approval rating is 44% and 46% in those two states, respectively.  Hard to say states with disapproval that is higher than approval will lean to Obama, don't you think?  So I'm considering their electoral votes as leaning Republican.  It's also hard to say that Michigan (16) and Maine (4) can legitimately be called "leaning Obama" when his approval rating is 50% there (a genuine tossup).  Finally, RCP calls Ohio (18) and Florida (29) as tossups, but in both those states again Obama's approval is several points lower than his disapproval, so I think we can call those lean Republican as well, as can Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15) who also have Obama's approval ratings well under water.

So let's give an honest comparison, shall we?

Strong Obama

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Dist. of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12)

Lean Obama

Minnesota (10)

True Tossups

Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (16)
Iowa (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Florida (29)


Lean Republican

Colorado (9) *
Nevada (6) *
New Hampshire (4) *
North Carolina (15) *
Ohio (18) *
Virginia (13) *
Arizona (11)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)

Strong Republican

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (16)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

* These States have been moved to the lean Republican column due to Obama's approval ratings being 46% or less with disapproval rates above his approval number.

So, with these more honest numbers, the Republican nominee is looking at 256 Electoral Votes, Obama is looking at 185 Electoral Votes, and only 81 are tossups.  A few important details: Even if the President gets a clean sweep of the five true tossup states, he's still four electoral votes shy of winning. Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is only 14 votes shy of winning.  So if the GOP nominee can win any two of the five tossup states, they will win.

At any rate, we're looking at a one-term Obama Presidency.  Thank you, God.