Swing States Swing to Romney Post Debate

Mitt Romney's debate performance last week was one of the finest debate performances I've seen since I started watching debates twenty years ago. Many predicted he would perform well in the debates, but many also said that debates rarely change elections. Welcome to rarely.

Over the weekend, a lot of things started swinging to Mitt. In Gallup, for example, Governor Romney went from losing by 5% before the debate to tied with the President. This is huge, especially since Gallup polls Registered Voters not Likely Voters. In Rasmussen, Governor Romney went from 2% down on Friday to 2% ahead on Saturday.

But what about the swing states? What happened post debate there?  Let's look at recent polls (regardless of organization) before and after the debate. (We'll use statewide party registration data as our baseline where appropriate.)


Colorado (Party Registration +2% Republican):

- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by +3%.

- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Romney winning by 3%. (Using an accurate +2% Republican sample)

Florida (Party Registration +5% Democrat):

- Before the debate, Suffolk had Obama leading by 3% (Sample Democrat +6%) and Gravis had Obama +1%.

- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 3% and Rasmussen had Romney winning by 2%.

Nevada (Party Registration +5% Democrat)

- Before the debate, We Ask America had Obama leading by 11%.

- After the debate, Gravis Marketing had Obama's lead down to 1%.


Now I recognize we're using lots of polls here, but that's because we need to as these organizations are not being consistent in their polling during the campaign. However, one thing is clear. After the debate, Mitt Romney is making a huge comeback. Game on.

Ohio (Party Registration +1% Republican)

- Before the debate, Public Policy Polling had Obama leading by 4% (using a +5% Democrat sample) and NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +8% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 8%.

- After the debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by 1% and Rasmussen had Obama leading by only 1%.

Virginia (Party Registration +3% Republican)

- Before the debate NBC, using a tiny sample and a huge margin of error (using a +2% Democrat sample) had Obama leading by 2%.

- After the Debate, We Ask America had Romney leading by +3% and Rasmussen had Romney leading by +1%.

Wisconsin (Party Registration +4% Democrat):

- Before the debate, the Marquette University claimed Obama had a lead of 11% over governor Romney. (Sample +7% Democrat).

- After the debate, Democrat Public Policy Polling

Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 2)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's continue to look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?


Wisconsin - RCP Avg: Obama + 6.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+6%

Wisconsin Voter Registration: +4% Democrat

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +7% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

- For NBC to get Obama to +5% they had to oversample Democrats by +5%

- For CBS to get Obama to +6%, they had to oversample Democrats by +8%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Virginia - RCP Avg Obama +3.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample +3% Democrat

Virginia Voter Registration: +3% Republican- For NBC to get Obama to +2%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For Suffolk to get Obama to +2% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)


In Wisconsin, to get Obama to a +6.7% average lead they had to oversample Democrats by an average of 6%. Again, assuming 90% of undersampled Republicans reweighted will give you a much smaller Obama lead of 1.1%, well within the margin of error.

In Virginia, when you take that 3.7% lead and the 3% oversample of Democrats to get to even (or 6% oversample of Democrats against

Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 1)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?



Ohio - RCP Avg: Obama +5.5% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+ 6.6%Ohio Voter Registration: +1% Republican

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +5%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For the Columbus Dispatch to get Obama to +9%, they also had to oversample Democrats by +9%.

- For Gravis Marketing to get Obama to +1%, they had to oversample Democrats by 10%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Florida - RCP Avg: Obama +3%. - Avg Democrat Oversample: 8%
Florida Voter Registration: +5% Democrat                                                                                              

- For Gravis Marketing to get Obama to +1%, they had to oversample Democrats by 7%.

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +3%, they had to oversample Democrats by +9%

- For the Washington Post to get Obama to +4%, they had to use a sample of only 161 Likely Voters and a margin of error of 11%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

I hope I've painted a nice, clear picture for you. In Ohio, to get Obama to an average of +5.5% the polls had to oversample Democrats and average of 6.6%. Unskewed and assuming that 90% of the Republicans would vote for Romney, we're looking at Mitt having a lead just of about .5%.

In Florida, to get Obama to an average of +3% the polls had to oversample Democrats by an average of 8%. Adjust that to an even turnout (which is a very reasonable guess this election) and assume 90% of the Republicans properly weighted back in, you see Romney leading by 2.5% in Florida.

This post will be continued Monday with a look at Wisconsin and Virginia.