Reactions to Super Tuesday

Tuesday, ten states held their Republican contests. 

The final scorecard was:

 Romney 7 states (198 Delegates) - Santorum 3 states (84 Delegates) - Gingrich 1 state (68 Delegates) - Paul 0 States (21 Delegates)

That puts the delegate count at:

Romney 404 - Santorum 161 - Gingrich 105 - Paul 61

So what does it all mean?  Looking at things candidate by candidate:

Mittens won Ohio, Virginia, Massachusetts, Idaho, Alaska and Vermont. Of those states, only the Ohio win counts as a big one.  Neither Santorum nor Gingrich were on the Virginia ballot, he would've won (in this primary) Massachusetts and Vermont with his eyes closed, and Idaho isn't going to be a swing state and neither will Alaska. Ohio was an absolute squeaker...Mittens won by less than 1% of the vote. 

Here's where Mitt should be worried: He still hasn't carried a genuine southern state. (Yes, I know, he won Florida, but Florida is basically South New York.  There are so many transplanted New Yorkers there it's hard to call it Southern).  This is where Mitt could still lose. 

Rick Santorum won Tennessee, North Dakota, and Oklahoma.  I think it's fair to say, however, that Santorum lost because Newt's still in the race. If (as expected) conservatives weren't split between Newt and Santorum, the Senator could have added Alaska and Ohio to his win column, strongly changing this Super Tuesday's results.  More on that later.

Newt Gingrich carried his home state of Georgia and made a fair showing for himself in Tennessee.  Had Santorum not been in the race, one could expect Newt to have carried Tennessee and Oklahoma. But, one cannot fairly say it's Santorum who should get out given the current polls.  Newt didn't quite have his swan song on Tuesday, but he needs to win Mississippi, Alabama, and possibly Kansas in the next week to stay in this race. Otherwise, he's just guaranteeing us Romney.

I've endorsed Newt, and I still believe he's the best candidate for the job, but sometimes one needs to be strategic.  I'm going to hold back from saying Newt should drop out.  But if he doesn't win at least Mississsippi and Alabama this coming Tuesday, I'm going to have to say that and likely withdraw my endorsement of him for that reason.  Conservatives want better than Romney. That's a fact. The reality is we cannot continue to pretend Newt's got another huge comeback in him at this late stage in the game.  He needs two Hail Mary touchdowns in Mississippi and Alabama, or else the game is over.

Finally, there's Ron Paul.  Congressman Paul didn't win any states, but did pick up a few delegates.  To date, hes' got about 8% of the total delegates so far.  His quest is to push some of his fiscal ideas into the platform. Honestly, he needs more than 8% of the delegates to do it. We'll see what happens, but I do expect Congressman Paul on the ballot for the rest of the campaign either way. 

Super Tuesday is past.  It's time for conservatives to face a harsh truth: We either unite behind one candidate or accept Mittens. I'm on record saying I can live with Mittens. Doesn't mean he's preferable. I prefer dogs over cats.  I have a cat because I live in an apartment and can't have a dog and I want a real pet, darn it. If I could've gotten a dog back in '05 when I adopted my cat, I would've gotten a dog. Right now, we can still have a dog...or we can settle for a cat.  He might even end up being a great cat...one that acts a lot like a dog (like my cat does, by the way). The time to make that decision is now.  We can live with our ideals and be stuck with Mitt, or we can coalesce.  The time is now to decide.  I'm eager to hear your thoughts. 

Before (Actually During) Super Tuesday

Today is Super Tuesday.  A lot is going to be decided.  It seems that every major candidate (except for Ron Paul) is picked to win a couple of states.  Romney is leading the most, but Santorum is nipping at his heels.  Newt needs a splash. Ron Paul is, well, Ron Paul.

Mittens really wants a few big victories.  He wants to get his air of inveitability back.  He wants to push his "accept me" routine so he can start focusing on Obama.  It's not going to happen after today's results, but Mittens can surely try. What Mitt needs to do is court conservatives.  He needs to stop running from his supposed conservatism.  Embrace it. Stop believing the Drive-By Media...conservatism does not scare away Independents.  Liberalism does, which is why Liberals have to campaign as centrists.  But conservatism WINS. It's like Novocaine, always works, just give it time.  Every time.

Rick Santorum also wants to make a splash, this time against Mittens' inevitability claims. He needs to focus moving forward on his conservatism. Including his fiscal conservatism.  The moral issues are good and important, but so is the economy.  That's why Mittens is doing so well.  He's an economy guy.  If Senator Santorum gets on that train, he'll do well too.

Then there's my guy.  Newt Gingrich is at a now or never point.  He needs to win a few states, not just Georgia.  We'll see what happens...but if he can't pick up probably at least 3 states, it may be time to drop out and let the conservative vote coalesce behind Santorum  We'll see what happens tonight.

Of course, that leaves Ron Paul.  Ron Paul is trying to gain delegates.  He likely will, especially in the Idaho and North Dakota Caucuses. He's pushing to have his views on the GOP Platform.  Go for it, Congressman Paul, provided it's your economic policies I'm in favor of them!

We're going to know a lot tomorrow morning.  We may see the field winnowed.  We may not.  It's going to be interesting.  On a final note, please know that my official reactions to Super Tuesday will come on Thursday, so there's time to give a good analysis of all the fallout. 

As always, thanks for reading Biblical Conservatism, and, with Super Tuesday in full force, game on.

Reactions to the AZ and MI Primaries

Yesterday, Arizona and Michigan held their Republican Primaries.  One was hotly contested, the other was not.  Before we analyze the two states, lets note for the record that neither Newt Gingrich nor Ron Paul put any real effort into these two states.  Both states were essentially contests between Mitt Romney and Rick Santorum (although all four were on the ballot).  So, given this lack of effort by Newt and Ron Paul,

Let’s take them one at a time, shall we?

Arizona

Arizona was ultimately a layup for Mittens.  Polls closed at 9 pm Eastern, the state was called at 9:01 pm.  It’s a nice win for Mitt, since Arizona’s delegates are winner-take-all.  So Mitt picked up 29 more delegates toward the nomination.  Not a whole lot more to say.  Mitt did nicely for himself in Arizona. It was the kind of win Mitt needed to regain his air of inevitability.

Michigan

And then Michigan happened to Mittens.  It couldn’t be called for quite some time. Mitt won a squeaker at the end of the day, but even that win is very hard to call it a win.  Winning by 3% is a pathetic turnout considering that Mitt was born and raised in Michigan and that George Romney, Mitt’s father, was the incredibly popular 3-term governor of Michigan.  The Romney name is as golden in Michigan as the name Kennedy is in Massachusetts, yet Mitt could only ride that to a small victory.  If I was Mittens, I’d be nervous.

Rick Santorum on the other hand ought to be very pleased with his showing.  To come so close to beating Mitt in his home state and to pick up close to half of the 30 delegates at stake is huge.  Furthermore, if the conservative vote was to be consolidated (this time theoretically behind Santorum), the Senator would’ve beaten Mitt.   A very strong showing for Rick Santorum.

Two more primaries, two wins for Mitt.  Arizona was a nice win.  Michigan, however, was disappointing.  If I was Mitt Romney, I’d feel nervous.  If I was Rick Santorum, I’d feel confident.  Even though the Senator lost both contests, again, coming so close to beating Mittens in Michigan is a great victory for him. 

Next week is going to be very telling.  Next Tuesday is Super Tuesday.  Mittens is lost his inevitability.  Rick Santorum is rising as the conservative choice. Next week is the last chance for Newt Gingrich to make a comeback.  If he doesn’t, it’s time to conservatives to coalesce behind Rick Santorum. 

Either way, Mittens is not doing well.  He wanted to have this race wrapped up by now.  Instead, he’s in a dogfight.  This nation is pushing further to the right, conservatism is taking over the GOP, returning it to its.   The Tea Party, no matter how much we’re called fringe, is actually the mainstream of America.  Those of us who have been conservatives for years are joining forces with those who just came to the conservative table and we are taking this country back.  At the end of the day, I believe whomever we nominate is going to beat Barack Obama.  So let’s get the best we can get.  Game on.