When Carter Beat Reagan (According to Pre-Election Polls)

Oh, you thought the 2012 Election polls that show a very weak incumbent President in a surprisingly close election with his challenger?

In 1980, as the American Spectator reminded us recently, The New York Times was showing President Jimmy Carter in a horse race with challenger Ronald Reagan in several crucial swing states.

The states in question were:

• California
• Texas
• Pennsylvania
• Illinois
• Ohio *
• New Jersey
• Florida *
• New York
• Michigan *

The Times, in typical Times fashion, considered all nine of these states as close, critical swing states. Only Reagan's home state of California was considered a Likely Reagan state and New Jersey was said to Lean Reagan. So let's talk about what the Times predicted vs what actually happened, shall we? (Please remember that the Election of 1980 had John Anderson, a major Independent challenger, running against both Carter and Reagan which lead to states where the Carter-Regan aggregate did not come close to 100%.)

Texas: About a month before Election '80, the Times told it's readers the race sat at Carter 40%, Regan 39%. On Election Day, Reagan won the state by 13%. A 14% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

Pennsylvania: The Times claimed that, again about a month before the election, Reagan was leading Carter by only 2%. On Election Day, Regan won the state by 7%. A 5% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.




Illinois: About two weeks before the election, the Times stated that Illinois was "too close to call." According to their recent CBS/New York Times poll, Reagan was leading Carter 34% to 33%. On Election Day, Reagan won the state 49% to 41%. A 7% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

Ohio: Again, about two weeks before the election, the Times called Ohio a close race, with Reagan leading Carter by only 2%. On Election Day, Reagan won Ohio by 10%. An 8% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

Florida: This time the Times refused to publish their own poll. Instead, they quoted "recent local newspaper polls" that showed Reagan leading Carter by 2%. On Election Day, Reagan beat Carter to win Florida by a staggering 17%. A 15% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

New York: Imagine New York as a swing state? (As a lifelong resident I cannot.) But in 1980, the Times, just over a week before the election, stated that Carter was leading Reagan by 9%. On Election Day, Reagan won New York by 2%. An 11% swing from the polls.

Michigan: In Michigan, the Times did not report the actual race as it sat that day, save for saying it was close. On Election Day, Reagan won by 6%.



Nationally: A week before the election, the New York Times/CBS Poll had Carter leading Reagan 39% to 38%. On Election Day, Reagan beat Carter by 10%. An 11% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

So friends, when we look at history, especially when we're looking at a weak President who is oddly reminiscent of Jimmy Carter in his policies, success (or lack there of) and the Drive-By Media is again trying to tell tales about how close the race is or how Obama is winning, just remember the Election of 1980. And how Carter beat Reagan. Oh wait...

* Swing State in 2012

Source: The American Spectator -How Carter Beat Reagan