Be Prepared for Legal Challenges In Close States

Especially the ones where the swing state polls are using preposterous samples that won't happen on Tuesday.

Quick history lesson: Who remembers 2000? I do. Al Gore held up a decision from the 2000 Election for a full month. While it was required by law for Florida to do a machine recount of votes when the margin for victory for Bush was only 2000 votes. Gore then demanded hand recounts of votes, not only focusing ONLY on three of the most heavily Democratic counties in Florida but also demanding that votes be counted for him where votes that were not clearly cast, as defined by law, for a particular candidate.

Liberals spent years using such methods as exit polls and polls done after the election asking people who they had intended to vote to say that the actual votes were wrong. That's the world of the Left, gang...the actual votes don't matter. Just the polls matter.

How about 2004? In that election, the Exit Polls showed John Kerry winning the Presidency. It wasn't close, in some polls. Then the votes started to be counted. It wasn't close. Bush won. He won by a comfortable enough 3% margin.

The stories came out again: There must have been fraud! The polls said Kerry was going to win! Even John Kerry pondered a challenge like Gore four years before...but ultimately thought better of it. That didn't stop the Left from claiming it was illegitimate. It's not the votes that matter...the polls are the TRUTH...according to the Left.

So now we have these poll that are continuing to use 2008 Turnout as their models...if not far greater Democrat turnout that 2008. I made this point Friday on Biblical Conservatism:

When the turnout in, for example, Ohio, ISN'T +9% Democrat but lets say it's +2% Democrat and Romney wins by 1-2%...don't you think the New York Times might just say "How can this be?! Our polls showed Obama winning by 5%!"

My friends, I want you to be ready. I believe we are going to win. And as history has shown, these attempts to claim fraud doesn't stick. What the ultimate result will be if this happens, however, will be a claim that future President-Elect Romney would be told he has no grounds for a mandate and therefore he has no right to institute his policies. That's what they said about George W. Bush.

Bottom line: BE READY. I believe we are going to win on Tuesday. If it's not a sweep victory for Romney (which it could indeed be...see polls before the Election of 1980), there will be these claims from some if not all circles in the Drive-By Media.

When Carter Beat Reagan (According to Pre-Election Polls)

Oh, you thought the 2012 Election polls that show a very weak incumbent President in a surprisingly close election with his challenger?

In 1980, as the American Spectator reminded us recently, The New York Times was showing President Jimmy Carter in a horse race with challenger Ronald Reagan in several crucial swing states.

The states in question were:

• California
• Texas
• Pennsylvania
• Illinois
• Ohio *
• New Jersey
• Florida *
• New York
• Michigan *

The Times, in typical Times fashion, considered all nine of these states as close, critical swing states. Only Reagan's home state of California was considered a Likely Reagan state and New Jersey was said to Lean Reagan. So let's talk about what the Times predicted vs what actually happened, shall we? (Please remember that the Election of 1980 had John Anderson, a major Independent challenger, running against both Carter and Reagan which lead to states where the Carter-Regan aggregate did not come close to 100%.)

Texas: About a month before Election '80, the Times told it's readers the race sat at Carter 40%, Regan 39%. On Election Day, Reagan won the state by 13%. A 14% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

Pennsylvania: The Times claimed that, again about a month before the election, Reagan was leading Carter by only 2%. On Election Day, Regan won the state by 7%. A 5% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.




Illinois: About two weeks before the election, the Times stated that Illinois was "too close to call." According to their recent CBS/New York Times poll, Reagan was leading Carter 34% to 33%. On Election Day, Reagan won the state 49% to 41%. A 7% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

Ohio: Again, about two weeks before the election, the Times called Ohio a close race, with Reagan leading Carter by only 2%. On Election Day, Reagan won Ohio by 10%. An 8% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

Florida: This time the Times refused to publish their own poll. Instead, they quoted "recent local newspaper polls" that showed Reagan leading Carter by 2%. On Election Day, Reagan beat Carter to win Florida by a staggering 17%. A 15% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

New York: Imagine New York as a swing state? (As a lifelong resident I cannot.) But in 1980, the Times, just over a week before the election, stated that Carter was leading Reagan by 9%. On Election Day, Reagan won New York by 2%. An 11% swing from the polls.

Michigan: In Michigan, the Times did not report the actual race as it sat that day, save for saying it was close. On Election Day, Reagan won by 6%.



Nationally: A week before the election, the New York Times/CBS Poll had Carter leading Reagan 39% to 38%. On Election Day, Reagan beat Carter by 10%. An 11% swing in Reagan's favor from the pre-election polls.

So friends, when we look at history, especially when we're looking at a weak President who is oddly reminiscent of Jimmy Carter in his policies, success (or lack there of) and the Drive-By Media is again trying to tell tales about how close the race is or how Obama is winning, just remember the Election of 1980. And how Carter beat Reagan. Oh wait...

* Swing State in 2012

Source: The American Spectator -How Carter Beat Reagan

Another Cooked Poll: 3 Swing State Poll with Stacked Sample

Well friends, it's becoming almost comical how frequently the Drive-By Media keeps giving us cooked polls. This one's about a week old, but with so much going on, I haven't had time to delve into it. But today campers, we're going to be doing just that.

The perpetrator this time is a CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac Poll of three critical swing states: Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. One problem that presents right at the start is that it's essentially three polls in one and it only has about 1200 "likely voters" in the poll. If you figure that it's only 400-500 individuals per state, that makes the margin of error ridiculous. The poll claims the following:

                           Obama                            Romney                                    Result

Florida                  49%                                46%                                     Obama +3%

Ohio                     50%                                44%                                     Obama +6%

Wisconsin             49%                                 47%                                     Obama +2%

So all three are pretty close. However, all three polls have oversampled Democrats significantly, especially for a poll of Likely Voters, not Registered Voters. As we've discussed time and time again, Republican voters are more reliable to the tune of about a 2-4% swing in the GOP's favor whenever the poll goes from Registered to Likely voters.

We're going to be a little imprecise due to lack of data on what the samples OUGHT to be, because the best I can find in those three states are statistics of their party registration. We'll then use a conservative estimate from that registration sample of +2% to the Republicans to account for likely voters.


                   Democrat             Republican           Advantage             Adjusted Advantage with Likely Voters

Florida           41%                     36%                   D +5%                                   D +3%

Ohio               36%                    37%                   R +1%                                    R +3%

Wisconsin       38%                     34%                  D +4%                                    D +2%

So friends that's our baseline. Florida with a Democrat +3% Advantage, Ohio with a Republican +3% advantage and Wisconsin with a +2% advantage. We can expect likely a bigger swing in favor of the GOP considering, at least nationally, given that when Independent leaners are added into party registration you end up with an even split.

So let's look at what the Poll used as THEIR party sample:

                   Democrat             Republican           Advantage              OVERSAMPLE vs. Baseline                                                                                                                      (Without Baseline Adjustment)

Florida           34%                     28%                   D + 6%                            D +3%   (D +1%)

Ohio               34%                    26%                   R +1%                              D +11% (D +9%)

Wisconsin       32%                    28%                   D +4%                              D +4%  (D +2%)

The most ridiculous is Ohio, that oversampled Democrats by 11% against our Likely Voter baseline! Even if we don't use our baselines, there's still a 9% oversample of Democrats! That's just plain ridiculous! The rest of the oversamples happen to be JUST ENOUGH to turn the polls in Obama's favor.

So let's go right ahead and adjust that poll, considering that if we added the proper number of Republicans back into the poll, and presuming (and this is a conservative estimate) that 3/4 of Republicans will vote for Governor Romney, shall we:

                          Obama                           Romney                                  Result (vs. Cooked Poll Result)

Florida                  47%                               48%                                     Romney +1% (Obama +3%)

Ohio                     43%                                51%                                    Romney +8% (Obama +6%)

Wisconsin             46%                                50%                                    Romney +4% (Obama +2%)

Now isn't THAT interesting? When you remove the party biases and oversampling of Democrats, now all of a sudden, shock of shocks, Instead of winning these three crucial swing states, now Obama is LOSING these three states! Amazing!

Friends, this exercise we've just performed is by no means intended to be scientific. However, I believe it does do a fair job showing the difference in the Drive-By Media's outcomes with completely cooked samples vs. honest samples based on voter registration and voter probability.

Rest assured on this final note, my friends: The Drive-By Media wants you to think Obama is winning. As we have continued to show you in poll after poll, the facts simply do not show it to be true when looking at a real electorate and not a fantasy electorate that come from the mind of a liberal news manager's imagination.

I leave you with this final thought, from the classic baseball movie "A League of Their Own":

Obama is losing Independents, Women

The writing is beginning to show up on the wall...even in liberal polls. In a New York Times/CBS Poll released this week, Mitt Romney is now beating the President by a rate of 46% to 43% overall with all registered voters (remember, once you eliminate the 30% or so of registered voters who don't show up to vote, Republicans usually gain 2-3%). 

More troubling for President Obama is this: Romney is defeating Obama 43% to 36% with Independent voters....a 7% margin of victory, comfortably outside the margin of error. Furthermore, Governor Romney is beating President Obama with women 46% to 44% (within the margin of error, but still statistically tied). The President's lead also shrunk to a statistical tie with Adults 18-45 years old; he now leads Governor Romney 46% to 44%.  (This all happens while Mitt Romney isn't yet officially the Republican nominee.)

Compare that to the same poll in April (conducted with the same people, as explained by the poll) where the President was statistically tied with Governor Romney on Independents (Romney lead Obama 42% to 41%) and was winning comfortably with women (Obama lead Romney 49% to 42%).  With adults 18-45, a key demographic for the President as he needs to win the votes of people too young to have figured out the failures of liberalism yet (in April the President lead Governor Romney by a comfortable enough margin, 50% to 42%.)

This is bad news for President Obama, friends, very bad news. If the President loses Independents by a 9% margin, his loss overall will be significant. If the President can't carry women, his loss overall will be significant. If the President can't win adults under 45 years old and do so significantly (by at least 5-10%), he doesn't have a snowball's chance in July of a second term.

When the New York Times is admitting Obama's weakness, that should tell you something. That's precisely what the Times is doing. So let's focus on pushing Governor Romney to the right, friends, because in 2013 it looks like President Romney will be inaugurated. Not a moment too soon, my friends.