Visual Explanation: How to Get Obama to Lead (Using a Skewed Sample)

Just stop buying the Drive-By Media's polls, friends...

For Pew to arrive at this poll result:

They need to use THIS sample...

For the AP to arrive at this Result:

They had to use THIS poll sample:

Friends, the Drive-By Media is using highly cooked polls because,  if they used the real electorate, Obama would be losing and losing significantly.

Sources: 

THE AP-GfK POLL September, 2012  

Obama Ahead with Stronger Support, Better Image and Lead on Most Issues

Rasmussen: Partisan Trends

Even Democrat Pollsters Admit Media is Cooking Polls

I've spent the last couple months pointing out how ridiculous a prediction it is to say that the 2012 Election turnout will be +6% for Democrats (or +8% or +10% or whatever) not to mention the undersampling of Independents (who by the way are continuing to favor Mitt Romney).

I've continued to listen to people tell me that group think and collusion by the Drive-By Media is akin to scientific evidence that this is what the election will turnout as (since the same media outlets keep finding the same sample in "random" samples).

However, two Democrat pollsters gave interviews to corroborate what I've been saying for quite some time: These samples are NOT reflective of what the likely voter turnout will be in 2012.  First, Douglas Schoen, Democrat pollster who worked on such campaigns as Bill Clinton Michael Bloomberg. When  asked if the polling samples accurately reflect the probable electorate:

"The simple answer is no...the bottom line is there were seven percent more Democrats in the electorate in 2008 than there were Republicans. That's from the exit polls and that's about as accurate as you can get...President Obama won by about seven points. Given 90 percent of Democrats vote for the Democrat and 90 percent of Republicans vote for the Republican, every time you reduce the margin between the parties by one point, roughly it's about one point off the margin."

Later, Schoen said:

“Saying that America has gotten more Democratic than 2008, which is a questionable assumption.”

The second pollster was Democrat Insider Patrick Caddell, who worked for the campaigns of George McGovern, Jimmy Carter, Gary Hart, and past Senate campaigns for now Vice President Joe Biden.. He said of the recent polling samples:

"What you have is an act of utter irresponsibility, in my opinion."

Later in the interview, Caddell said,

"They shouldn't be running these...(they) are having an effect on this election that is really bad."And further, Caddell said,

"The key issue in this business is integrity...here's the real issue, the explicit message in all of this is, you got to tell the truth, I don't believe that anyone doing a poll today, for whoever, could credibly release numbers that are plus 11 for the Democratic Party."

Friends, I would argue that showing a skew period for Democrats is irresponsible. 2010 exit polls showed a dead heat. Rasmussen and Gallup's regular tracking polls of voter identification show either a Republican advantage or an even split. When two Democrat pollsters are admitting it, I think that says an awful lot.

As Caddell said, they are having an effect on this election with these polls. It remains my contention that that is precisely their goal. They do not want to reflect the electorate. They want to effect it.

Romney 53%, Obama 45% (If CNN's Poll Wasn't Skewed)

No, it wasn't me who did that math. It was the Washington Examiner. They took the polling sample from the most recent CNN Poll and changed it to reflect the real electorate. The results, once Republicans weren't undersampled and Independents RIDICULOUSLY undersampled, was Romney 53%, Obama 45%. Now THAT'S more like it!

I've been pointing out the ridiculousness of the polling samples used by many Drive-By Media sources have continued to use this election. Oversampling Democrats, undersampling Republicans, and woefully ignoring Independents.  The sample was Democrats 50%, Republicans 45%, Independents a mere 5%!

Now CNN refused to show that sample in their poll. It took behind the scenes work by The Washington Examiner to uncover the sampling problems.  But seriously, 5% Independents???  Yet another thing to keep in mind: According to the same CNN Poll shows Romney beating Obama with Independents by 14%!  Friends, there is NO WAY that Obama loses Independents by 14% in a real electorate and somehow beats Romney period, let alone by 6%.

Again according to the Washington Examiner, once the sample is adjusted to reflect the actual electorate and not the Democrat and Drive-By Media fantasy electorate, The results would be Romney 53% - Obama 45%. Friends, that's a big win for Governor Romney. That's what these ridiculous polling samples are hiding.

They want you discouraged. They want you to feel that Governor Romney can't win and President Obama can't lose. The truth is quite the opposite. Mitt Romney is doing very well and is about to defeat Barack Obama in November. Trust me, friends, we're about to win, and no amount of skewed polls will change it.

Sources:

Washington Examiner: Questions raised about skewed CNN poll showing Obama up 6 points over Romney

Washington Examiner: Mitt Romney would lead eight in unskewed data from newest CNN/ORC poll 

Washington Post: Post-convention poll shows Obama holds slight lead over Romney 

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Obama is Losing Independents by 15% in Democrat Poll

The news is a week old, I'm afraid, but there's been so much else going on I've been backed up on important stories to cover. However, it was the Democrat group Democracy Corps (run by former Clinton adviser James Carville) who broke the story that in their poll, the President is losing to Mitt Romney with Independents by 15%. That's huge, especially considering that Obama won Independents by 8% in 2008. (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that's a 23% swing in favor of the GOP from 2012).

The overall poll claimed that the President was leading Governor Romney by 2%...but that does include a +6% Democrat oversample. Translation: In the real world with an appropriately even sample or even a couple point GOP advantage which can be legitimately be guessed given the difference in voter engagement, it is reasonable to presume that Romney is actually beating Obama by about 3-4% (which is what the only poll of likely voters that doesn't include a fantasy electorate with a Democrat turnout advantage is showing).

Friends, I do not care what the Drive-By Media is trying to convince you with their fantasy polling samples with too many Democrats, President Obama is about to lose his job on November 6th. We are about to have America's Comeback with America's Comeback Team.

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Obama is Losing in a COOKED WaPo-ABC Poll!

You read that right, my friends! Even with a fantasy electorate, Obama is still losing in a new poll.

According to a Washington Post-ABC Poll released on Monday, Governor Mitt Romney is leading President Obama by 1%. The poll found Governor Romney receiving 47% of the vote with the Likely Voters they polled and President Obama receiving 46%. While this is reason enough to be cheerful, then one should look at the polling sample. Are you ready?

Democrat: 31%  Republican: 22%  Independent: 39% 

Now let's remind you of reality, shall we? According to Gallup's most recent poll of party affiliation 
(not registration), 31% of Americans consider themselves Democrats (so the Democrat sample is fine) but 29% consider themselves
Republicans and 38% identified as Independents (so the Independent sample is just fine).

So why THIS poll is claiming is that 9% of Americans identify with a third party?  Why are Republicans
undersampled? Even with a ridiculous undersampling of Republicans, once again, Obama is losing!

While we're at it, let's talk about the breakdowns of ideology (as opposed to party). According to THIS poll their 

ideological sample was:

Moderate: 41%   Conservative: 34%   Liberal: 21%  

So let's once again look at the Gallup poll of personal ideology (since once again Gallup is the only game in town

to poll this topic).

Conservative: 40%   Moderate: 35%   Liberal: 21%

So this poll undersampled conservatives by 6% and similarly oversampled moderates by 6%! So now the Drive-
By Media, instead of oversampling Democrats, is now undersampling Republicans and conservatives! You want 
to know how ridiculous the Washington Post-ABC numbers are? The lowest conservative rating in recent memory
was 36%...in 1992. The last time self-described moderates hit 40% was 1996. (Source: Gallup)

Either way it's just a new little trick from the Drive-By Media. Instead of living in an imaginary world where there are 
way more Democrats than Republicans, now they're imagining that Republicans and conservatives either don't
exist or won't vote (which is even sillier, since Republicans and conservatives are the most reliable voters groups!)

Friends, this is yet another telegraph of how worried the Drive-By Media is and how worried the Democrat Party
is...and that those of us who are pointing out that there won't be an 11% Democrat turnout advantage, or an 8%
Democrat turnout advantage, or a 5% Democrat turnout advantage...or likely a Democrat turnout advantage AT
ALL in 2012. So now, they're trying a new tactic. They'll undersample Republicans. They'll pretend the electorate 
is in terms of ideology looks like it did TWENTY YEARS AGO. 

The bottom line is this: The Democrat party is in deep, deep dog doo in 2012, both in terms of the White House
and in terms of Congress. The Drive-By Media's poll cooking proves it. This is our year, friends. I'll once again 
quote the same video I used yesterday:

Another Cooked Poll: 3 Swing State Poll with Stacked Sample

Well friends, it's becoming almost comical how frequently the Drive-By Media keeps giving us cooked polls. This one's about a week old, but with so much going on, I haven't had time to delve into it. But today campers, we're going to be doing just that.

The perpetrator this time is a CBS/New York Times/Quinnipiac Poll of three critical swing states: Florida, Ohio and Wisconsin. One problem that presents right at the start is that it's essentially three polls in one and it only has about 1200 "likely voters" in the poll. If you figure that it's only 400-500 individuals per state, that makes the margin of error ridiculous. The poll claims the following:

                           Obama                            Romney                                    Result

Florida                  49%                                46%                                     Obama +3%

Ohio                     50%                                44%                                     Obama +6%

Wisconsin             49%                                 47%                                     Obama +2%

So all three are pretty close. However, all three polls have oversampled Democrats significantly, especially for a poll of Likely Voters, not Registered Voters. As we've discussed time and time again, Republican voters are more reliable to the tune of about a 2-4% swing in the GOP's favor whenever the poll goes from Registered to Likely voters.

We're going to be a little imprecise due to lack of data on what the samples OUGHT to be, because the best I can find in those three states are statistics of their party registration. We'll then use a conservative estimate from that registration sample of +2% to the Republicans to account for likely voters.


                   Democrat             Republican           Advantage             Adjusted Advantage with Likely Voters

Florida           41%                     36%                   D +5%                                   D +3%

Ohio               36%                    37%                   R +1%                                    R +3%

Wisconsin       38%                     34%                  D +4%                                    D +2%

So friends that's our baseline. Florida with a Democrat +3% Advantage, Ohio with a Republican +3% advantage and Wisconsin with a +2% advantage. We can expect likely a bigger swing in favor of the GOP considering, at least nationally, given that when Independent leaners are added into party registration you end up with an even split.

So let's look at what the Poll used as THEIR party sample:

                   Democrat             Republican           Advantage              OVERSAMPLE vs. Baseline                                                                                                                      (Without Baseline Adjustment)

Florida           34%                     28%                   D + 6%                            D +3%   (D +1%)

Ohio               34%                    26%                   R +1%                              D +11% (D +9%)

Wisconsin       32%                    28%                   D +4%                              D +4%  (D +2%)

The most ridiculous is Ohio, that oversampled Democrats by 11% against our Likely Voter baseline! Even if we don't use our baselines, there's still a 9% oversample of Democrats! That's just plain ridiculous! The rest of the oversamples happen to be JUST ENOUGH to turn the polls in Obama's favor.

So let's go right ahead and adjust that poll, considering that if we added the proper number of Republicans back into the poll, and presuming (and this is a conservative estimate) that 3/4 of Republicans will vote for Governor Romney, shall we:

                          Obama                           Romney                                  Result (vs. Cooked Poll Result)

Florida                  47%                               48%                                     Romney +1% (Obama +3%)

Ohio                     43%                                51%                                    Romney +8% (Obama +6%)

Wisconsin             46%                                50%                                    Romney +4% (Obama +2%)

Now isn't THAT interesting? When you remove the party biases and oversampling of Democrats, now all of a sudden, shock of shocks, Instead of winning these three crucial swing states, now Obama is LOSING these three states! Amazing!

Friends, this exercise we've just performed is by no means intended to be scientific. However, I believe it does do a fair job showing the difference in the Drive-By Media's outcomes with completely cooked samples vs. honest samples based on voter registration and voter probability.

Rest assured on this final note, my friends: The Drive-By Media wants you to think Obama is winning. As we have continued to show you in poll after poll, the facts simply do not show it to be true when looking at a real electorate and not a fantasy electorate that come from the mind of a liberal news manager's imagination.

I leave you with this final thought, from the classic baseball movie "A League of Their Own":

Registered Voter Polls – The Drive-By Media’s Other Favorite Trick

Friends, the election is less than 3 months away. Traditionally, by this time, who is "likely" to vote is fairly well established. Yet the Drive-By Media has managed to generally eschew polls of Likely Voters in favor of continuing to poll all Registered Voters. The problem with that is simple: A significant amount of those registered to vote do not actually show up on Election Day. Furthermore, and this is important, multiple studies show that polling Registered Voters instead of Likely Voters tilts the poll 2-4% in favor of Democrats, since Republican voters are historically more reliable voters. 

The standard argument is that six months to a year before elections, who is a Likely Voter is tough to determine, so they continue to use Registered Voters. But now that we're so close, and the polls are so close (usually within the margin for error) it becomes increasingly important to focus on the Likely Voter. Yet Drive-By Media sources keep publishing those Registered Voter polls. 

Even using those less reliable polls, they are only showing President Obama ahead of Governor Romney by a point or two. For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, that means that when we poll those who are actually going to show up to vote, we're looking at Governor Romney tied or winning by about two points. And don't forget, as we've continually established, the same Drive-By Media sources are using fantasy party samples that give Democrats an advantage of anywhere from 6-8% of the sample in the less egregious cases and as much as a +11% advantage in some of the more ridiculous samples. 

Now no political scientist worth their salt is going to honestly predict that the Democrats are looking at a +8% turnout advantage like they did in 2008. Actually, if one is being honest based upon voter engagement, they would predict that the Republicans will see the turnout advantage. So to oversample Democrats is just plain sophistry. 

One might wonder why the Left would be so dishonest in their polling samples. It's a very reasonable question. The answer is actually quite simple. They want to SHAPE public opinion with their polls, rather than reflect it. Especially, as we've discussed, in light of the phenomenon of the Real Clear Politics (RCP) poll average. There are a few reliable polls out there that AREN'T using bad samples and Registered Voters. Rasmussen, for example, was incredibly reliable in 2008, and always polls Likely Voters. Furthermore, Rasmussen does a daily poll of over 1500 people and publishes a 3-day rolling average. Gallup does the same type of daily poll with a rolling average. They do use Registered Voters, but they also use a sample that is triple the 1000 or so voters that most polls do (Gallup uses 3000) so the size of that sample makes the margin for error significantly smaller. (Liberal polls like to use even smaller samples on a regular basis, which increases the likelihood of unreliability). 

These two polls especially along with smaller reliable polls in individual states like Purple Strategies manage to undo a lot of the false reporting of the Drive-By Media polls and bring down the President's less than accurate leads to almost nil. Many many voters use the RCP average as do many news organizations. When Liberal polling agencies skew their own polls they skew the average. It makes it look like the President is doing better than he is really doing.

So what does this do to the electorate? I mean, after all, it's not going to disenfranchise conservatives from voting for Governor Romney, right? That part is correct. But what it will do is reduce their likelihood of CONTRIBUTING to the Romney/Ryan campaign, both financially and with their time. That will make a difference in an election, friends. It's not just the vote, it's the investment of money and time to get OTHERS to vote for your candidate.

So friends, when you see these polls of Registered Voters, I recommend you throw them out the window. It's just the Drive-By Media doing their best to convince you the fight is going badly for our side. And here's the news you need to know: Quite the opposite is happening. Momentum is on our side, and we are on the verge of taking back the White House!

Romney Takes the Lead: Quick, COOK TWO POLLS!

I touched on this on Wednesday: After ten full days of liberal polling organizations not publishing polls (all the while with Gallup and Rasmussen showing Governor Romney taking a lead over President Obama), my suspicions were confirmed by two major Leftist polling organizations coming out with two skewed polls (both with identical skews, by the way, although different results).

The first culprit:  An NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll claims that Obama is leading Romney 48% to 44%.

The second culprit:  The AP Poll has Obama leading Romney by the far more believable 47% to 46%.

HOWEVER, a quick check of the polling samples in both shows that both polls oversampled Democrats by 6%. And if you're wondering, these are "party identification" not "party registration" so, based on what we demonstrated empirically earlier this week, it should be an EVEN SAMPLE of Democrats and Republicans.

Translation: If these two polls were using honest samples, it can be presumed that Romney would be beating Obama by at least a couple points in both polls.

This, friends, demonstrates precisely what I spoke of in my post on Wednesday. The Left is seeing bad news for President Obama, and they need to reverse the Romney momentum. So they put out two polls that give President Obama a 6% electoral advantage. To assume that the voter turnout this election will be anything CLOSE to the 2008 turnout of +8% for Democrats is pure sophistry. 

Considering that the Republican interest in the election is far higher than Democrats and while Democrats are losing interest. I will give you an example. So the idea that there will be a huge advantage in 2012 by Democrats is foolishness.

Time to consider a REAL electorate, not a fantasy one. And with the real electorate, Obama's in deep dog doo.

Why Aren't Liberal Polls Publishing?

Like so many other political junkies, I like to check polls in Election Season on a daily basis. Specifically, I check the Real Clear Politics Average, since it shows multiple polls in one easy location.  And I noticed something: Since Paul Ryan was picked as Mitt Romney's running mate, the only new polls published* are the reliable Gallup and Rasmussen, who each publish a daily tracking poll.

Other than those two who are as reliable as the tides in their daily polls, do you know how many other polls have been posted? ONE. And that was published yesterday.  As of the writing of this post (on Tuesday, August 21st, for the record) it has been ten days since the Ryan pick and only one poll aside from Rasmussen and Gallup has been published. Just over two months shy of election day. Intriguing, no?

What Gallup and Rasmussen show, as of the writing of this blog is Romney beating Obama 45% to 44% (Rasmussen) and Romney beating Obama 47% to 45% (Gallup)...certainly a happy trend for those who share my ideology. 

The only other poll, noted is a Monmouth/SurveyUSA/Braun poll that shows Obama beating Romney 46% to 45%. All three are within the margin for error. The sample on Monmoth is indeed slightly skewed to Democrats, as well, friends, giving them a 6% advantage. As we showed here on Monday, even if this is based on party registration not party leanings, the Democrats have only a 4% advantage. Which is intriguing because if we, for the sake of argument, assume that subtracting 2% Democrats and adding 2% Republicans to be at the party registration line alone, you could reasonably expect that Governor Romney would gain AT LEAST 1-2% in the poll, putting him again above Obama in THAT poll.

So why would the liberal pollsters not be polling? You can rest assured they're conducting polls, friends. There's no way you can believe that this close to an election they aren't conducting polls. So my guess is their polls are bad news to Obama. It may also have to do with the Real Clear Politics average that is published daily.

Now, for the record, Real Clear Politics is not to blame for what I am about to note. Their average is based on the last half dozen or so polls. (Perhaps it would be better to go with the last 7 days worth of polls, no matter how many there are, but I will give RCP the benefit of the doubt and guess that they feel three polls isn't enough to give a fair average.)  So the current average, instead of including polls from the last ten days, includes polls from the last seventeen days.

Included in that average are polls that have polling samples skewed beyond the believable 4% Democrat advantage...and remember, that's only if you go based on party registration, not party identification, since party identification is statistically tied between Democrats and Republicans. They also do not include the gains made by the Paul Ryan pick as running mate.

So why would this be happening? Answer: Real Clear Politics is continuing to use these outdated polls in their averages, making it look like the President is still leading Governor Romney. They can continue to report a slim lead for the President "In the RCP Average" while not noting that the polls are sadly outdated. They can continue to pretend the President is winning, when he is, in fact, not. The more then can dishearten conservatives, the better the chance Obama has to win. Disheartened conservatives won't financially support Governor Romney, after all.

* Post Script: As I mentioned I wrote this article on Tuesday, August 21st. As if the Internet was trolling me, both NBC and the Associated Press published polls today (August 22nd).

- The NBC/Wall Street Journal Poll claims that Obama is leading Romney 48% to 44%.

- The AP Poll has Obama leading Romney by the far more believable 47% to 46%.

HOWEVER, a quick check of the polling samples in both shows that both polls oversampled Democrats by 6%. And if you're wondering, these are "party identification" not "party registration" so, based on what we demonstrated empirically earlier this week, it should be an EVEN SAMPLE of Democrats and Republicans.

Translation: If these two polls were using honest samples, it can be presumed that Romney would be beating Obama by at least a couple points in both polls. More on these two polls tomorrow.

Obama's Poll Numbers Are Only Good With a Fantasy Electorate

Those of you who read this blog regularly know that one of my favorite things to do is dissect polling samples from the Drive-By Media which clearly come from Happy Imagination Land (since they have no bearing on reality. Do I do this because, frankly, it's an easy post to put together and there's a ton of source material? Partly. But also so you realize how absolutely ridiculously prevalent this is from the Drive-By Media.

You see, friends, despite what the same media sources who give you these skewed samples claim, polls are not an attempt to guage public opinion. Rather, it is an attempt to SHAPE public opinion. Sure, Mitt Romney is pretty well guaranteed the conservative VOTE. But the vote isn't all that matters, as I've told you time and time again.  It's about passion. It's about donations, too. If conservatives with money vote for Romney but don't donate, it's going to be a rough election. Ditto for conservatives who vote for Romney but don't volunteer or help convince their friends to vote for him. If the Drive-By Media can convince you that Romney's campaign is a lost cause, people who do a whole lot less donating, volunteering, and convincing.

So we get these polling samples based on a fantasy electorate. Consider this Pew Poll (which likely would've been the subject of a post if I wasn't on vacation last week).  It claims Obama has a 10% advantage over Governor Romney. There's only one problem: It claims that there will be a 19% advantage of Democrats over Republicans in voter turnout. NINETEEN PERCENT! Now let's give you a nice fat reality check, from Breitbart.com:

In the best election season Democrats have enjoyed since Nixon resigned, 2008, the Democrat advantage was only D+8, but Pew is now attempting to hustle us into believing the turnout this  year is going to be D +19.

To be honest, here in the Real World, there's about as much chance of the Democrats seeing a +19 advantage in turnout this time around as we do of seeing Barney Frank purchase a Chik-Fil-A franchise as part of his retirement investments.  Friends, assumption that we're going to see a Democrat turnout advantage on par with 2008's +8 advantage is not going to happen!

Why do I say this? Well, how about the fact that Republican voter has risen 16% since 2008, while Democrat voter enthusiasm has dropped 22% since the 2008 election.  For the record, in 2008, Democratic Voting Enthusiasm was at 61%, and now it has dropped to 39%. In 2008, Republican Voting Enthusiasm was at 35%, but today it's up to 51%. So even though Republican Voter Enthusiasm has spiked, and Democrat Voter Enthusiasm has plunged, we expect the 2012 election to see Democrat voter turnout that exceeds even the best advantage in recent memory four years ago? Go ahead and pee on my leg and tell me it's raining, too.

Bottom line, friends, is that Obama is hanging on by a thread at this point. He's got small leads in polls of Registered Voters. (20-30% of registered voters won't show up to vote, by the way...and Republican voters are more reliable than Democrat voters, historically.) Friends, do not believe the Drive-By Media poll cooking samples. We are on our way to win.

WaPo Poll - Obama Losing Independents, Tied With Romney (Due to Skewed Sample)

Yesterday, a Washington Post/ABC Poll came out. The results were staggering, especially when one looks at the skew in the overall polling sample to favor Obama.

A few things to note: This is a poll of Registered Voters, not Likely Voters. By the polls own admission (page 7 of the poll breakdown) only 79% of the individuals polled are either certain to vote or will probably vote. So more than 20% of the people polled won't show up to vote.  Then there was the polling sample. The sample of personal identification with a party (note: not party registration) was: Democrat - 33%, Independent - 36% and Republican - 24%. So a 9% advantage of Democrats over Republicans.

Compare that to Rassmussen's recent survey asking people of their personal party identification (again, not registration) was Republican - 33%, Democrat - 31%, and Independent - 28%. So to do a direct comparison, the Washington Post oversampled Democrats by 2%, undersampled Republicans by 9% and oversampled Independents by 8%. Either way, it's a massive swing of 11% in the favor of Obama. So that would explain how Obama manages to remain tied with Romney given his massive loss with Independents, which we will now mention.

According to the Washington Post/ABC Poll, specifically with the sample of Independents polled only (so the sample skew doesn't matter...this particular published finding is a sample of 100% independents so it doesn't matter if Independents were oversampled in the overall poll): Romney is beating President Obama 43% to 37%.  To compare, in 2008, Obama won Independents 52% to 44% for John McCain (not sure who the other 4% voted for?).

Bottom line here is this: if Obama loses Independents, he loses the White House. It's just that simple. Without winning independents Obama does not have a prayer. Putting aside the underhanded oversampling of Democrats by the Washington Post and ABC (which this blogger has come to expect), we can look at the individual samples of party indentification and see that self-identified Independents are not planning to vote for President Obama.

So unless the Democrat Party somehow manages to cook the electorate (not so subtle voter-fraud reference) Obama's in trouble. Which is what I've been saying all along. Game on.

Obama loses ground with Likely Voters over Registered Voters in Polls

Another detail we can glean is the difference between registered voter polls and likely voter polls. Ignoring how clearly doctored two of the included registered voter polls are, the average of registered voter polls is Obama 46%, Romney 44%. But likely voter polls from the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average is Romney 48% to Obama's 46%. That means a net swing for Romney of +4% once we go from registered voters to likely voters!

Then there's that once in a while poll that someone tries to put up that asks all adults, regardless of if they're even eligible to vote.National Journal did that a few weeks back. They found in a poll of adults that 47% preferred Obama to 39% who preferred Romney.  But this was just plain adults! What percentage weren't even registered to vote? Let's compare.

Please note the following polls are 2 plus weeks old. We're just giving a baseline comparison.

That week, the average of polls of registered voters showed the President beating Governor Romney 47.625% to 44.75% (within the typical margin for error). The one poll off likely voters showed Governor Romney beating President Obama 47% to 44%.

So to look at the swing, the margins went from +8% for Obama with all adults to about +3% in favor of the President with registered voters but a +3% victory for Governor Romney over the President with likely voters.

So when you go from adults to to likely voters, you go from a +8% victory for Obama with adults (including people who don't get to vote because they aren't registered) to a +3% victory for Governor Romney with the people who are likely to show the heck up to vote.

This is yet another example of liberal poll doctoring, friends. They are using the groupings that are most favorable to the President followed by using polling samples that are skewed toward Democrats.

Here's the bottom line, as I discussed yesterday. The Drive-By Media wants to dishearten conservatives and Republicans. They want us to believe Obama will be re-elected and we might as well give up. But the reality is Obama is very weak and is highly vunerable for electoral defeat. Don't believe the hype. Or the cooked polls. Obama is expecting defeat in 2012. We should too.

Obama is losing, so the Drive-By Media Cooks Some Polls

It's happening, friends. The Drive-By Media is releasing cooked poll after cooked poll to show President Obama as stronger than he really is in head to head polls against Mitt Romney.  We talked about it in late April when the offender was NBC.  This time we have two offenders: Reuters/Ipsos and Tipp Online. Both have Obama beating Romney. Both have skewed poll samples to favor Obama.

Important to note is what these two polls do to the Real Clear Politics average.  (For those of you from Palm Beach County, FL, what Real Clear Politics (henceforce referred to as RCP) does is take all polls in a given election and give a straight average, whether the poll is of adults, registered voters, or likely voters.) What these two polls have done is given the President a slim lead in the RCP average of 46.2% to Romney's 46%. (So close it's a statistical tie.) However, this includes our two doctored polls. More on this later.

Before we go into the two polls, let's once again set the baseline in this country for conservatives, moderates, and liberals. As I've said so many times before, this is far more accurate than naming party affiliation, because so many people in the South especially are still registered as Democrats but vote conservative...holdovers from a past where a conservative Democrat was a real thing. However, it is reasonable to presume that conservatives will vote Republican and liberals will vote Democrat, leading the moderates as the group who may or may not vote down their party line or be a swing voter.

So, in 2011, Gallup did, as in past years, conduct a series of polls to establish the ideological demographics of this nation. In January 2012 Gallup published their National Ideology Poll.  At that time, 40% of Americans self-identified as conservative, 35% self-identified as moderate and 21% self-identified as liberal.  So a legitimate assumption would be to presume 40% of Americans to lean Republican and only 21% to lean Democrat. Even if we assume 20% of those moderates are true swing voters (as conventional wisdom proclaims) and split the remaining 15% with the two parties as moderate Democrats and moderate Republicans, that means 47.5% Republican leaners and 28.5% Democrat leaners. (Translation, they need ALL the true swing voters to win.)

The first offending poll is Tipp Online.  Tipp shows the President beating Mitt Romney 46% to 43% amongst registered voters (not likely voters, registered voters).  Even Tipp admits that "Race Tightens, Obama Lead Over Romney Narrows To 3 Points" in their headline.  But there's a problem with their polling sample. They gave Democrats a 7% advantage! You have to look at the very bottom of this poll to find it, but when Tipp asked the individuals polled which way lean politically, 38% self-identified as Democrat, 31% self-identified as Republican, and 27% self-identified as independent. 

That's a 7% advantage simply handed to the Democrats...one that does not exist in reality!  The only way to justify this poll is to claim, erouneously, that 65% of all moderates lean Democrat while only 35% lean Republican.

The second offending poll is Reuters/Ipsos. The poll shows Obama with a mildly comfortable lead of 49% to 42% over Mitt Romney (not likely voters, registered voters). There's just one problem...they went and handed a 9% advantage to Democrats in this poll! Whooops!  Their polling sample was 47% Democrat leaners to 38% Republican leaners! Holy cow! Once again, this does not match up with the real electorate and their political ideologies!

The only way to justify this poll is to eroneously claim that 74% of self-identified moderates lean Democrat. Nice try, but no dice. This does not add up to any reality.

So back to that RCP average that we talked about. Let's take the other polls involved, including two 3-day rolling average polls in Gallup and Rasmussen; as well as two polls of likely voters rather than registered voters in Rasmussen and Democracy Corps (ironically, these guys are a Democrat polling organization yet they're being more honest).

Rasmussen has Romney defeating Obama 49% to 44%, a 5% margin of victory (2% above the margin of error). Gallup has Romney defeating Obama 47% to 44%, a 3% margin of error (exactly the margin of error).  Democracy Corps has a tie of 47% to 47% for both candidates.

These three polls have an average of Romey 47.75% to Obama 45.5%.  This means Romney averaging a +2.25% margin of victory.  Compare this to the RCP average including the cooked Tipp and Reuters polls, which shows Obama beating Romney 46.2% to 46%.  So by publishing cooked polls, these two organizations push the RCP average from Obama losing to Obama winning.

Friends, the Drive-By Media likes to do this to dishearten conservatives, to make us give up on winning the White House. They want to make you believe that Obama will be re-elected so you won't work hard to defeat him. But what polls like this show is that they are very worried. They are trying to convince you (and themseleves) that Obama is a stronger candidate than reality shows. We must not let him. We will defeat Obama in 2012!