RCP Avg Strikes Again with Misleading Polls - This Time in Ohio

According to the Real Clear Politics Average in Ohio, the President is leading Governor Romney by 1.7% in the so-called "poll of polls." As I've said before, I am willing to at least give RCP the benefit of the doubt, but still, this average includes four polls that either by accident or design use highly Democrat skewed polls:

RCP is using four polls with skewed samples:

Survey USA, uses a +7% Democrat sample to get Obama to +3%. If we unskew that data to a +3% Democrat Sample, using Survey USA's own internal data of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents are polling, we find Romney with a slight lead of 44.7% to Obama's 44.0%

CBS/Quinnipiac, uses a +9% Democrat Sample to get Obama to +5%. If we unskew that to a +3% Democrat sample, and using CBS/Quinnipiac's own data, we find Obama's lead has cut to one tenth of the poll's prediction to 0.5%: Obama 45.8% to Romney 45.3%

Gravis Marketing used a sample of +9% Democrat, and that showed a tie. If we unskew it to a +3% Democrat sample and use Gravis' own internal data,

The PPP and Fox News polls could not be accurately unskewed because they did not publish their internal data did not provide the necessary breakdowns of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents intended to vote.

So apparently Obama is in fact losing Ohio, very slightly. This makes a difference. Lets look at the RCP "No Tossup" Map, shall we? This is the map using the skewed Ohio sample:

Now let's look at the map using our new data that unskews the samples to +3% Democrat instead of +7-9% Democrat:

One other issue for the President is he's at an average of 46.3%. Well below 50%. Historically you see undecided voters this late (12 days before the election) swing hard to the challenger. I'll even be generous and call it 2:1 for Romney. When that happens it's 51.7% Romney, 48.3% Obama.

Bottom line, exactly what I've been telling you is true: the RCP average, when a Drive-By Media source throws a wrench into the mix and skews the average, it spoils the entire sample. Here in reality, Romney is winning. And that's all that matters.

Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 1)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?



Ohio - RCP Avg: Obama +5.5% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+ 6.6%Ohio Voter Registration: +1% Republican

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +5%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For the Columbus Dispatch to get Obama to +9%, they also had to oversample Democrats by +9%.

- For Gravis Marketing to get Obama to +1%, they had to oversample Democrats by 10%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Florida - RCP Avg: Obama +3%. - Avg Democrat Oversample: 8%
Florida Voter Registration: +5% Democrat                                                                                              

- For Gravis Marketing to get Obama to +1%, they had to oversample Democrats by 7%.

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +3%, they had to oversample Democrats by +9%

- For the Washington Post to get Obama to +4%, they had to use a sample of only 161 Likely Voters and a margin of error of 11%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

I hope I've painted a nice, clear picture for you. In Ohio, to get Obama to an average of +5.5% the polls had to oversample Democrats and average of 6.6%. Unskewed and assuming that 90% of the Republicans would vote for Romney, we're looking at Mitt having a lead just of about .5%.

In Florida, to get Obama to an average of +3% the polls had to oversample Democrats by an average of 8%. Adjust that to an even turnout (which is a very reasonable guess this election) and assume 90% of the Republicans properly weighted back in, you see Romney leading by 2.5% in Florida.

This post will be continued Monday with a look at Wisconsin and Virginia.

Drive-By Media Admits Romney is Winning Independents

It's a detail that has been ignored in the cooked polls that the Drive-By Media keeps posting: Romney is winning Independents in the Swing States. Remember how the "conventional wisdom" is that Independents are the kingmakers, right?

Well, according to some polling in both Florida and Ohio, Romney is winning Independents in each state. Today, we're going to do a little exercise. It's not meant to be scientific, mind you. Just a little illustration.  First, the data:

Ohio – Romney Leads Among Independents:

Ohio Newspaper Organization – Romney +28
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +1
American Research Group – Romney +16
Fox News – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +3
Public Policy Polling – Romney +2                 
Average: Romney +9%

Florida - Romney Leads Among Independents:

CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac – Romney +3
Gravis Marketing – Romney +4
We Ask America – Romney +2
American Research Group – Romney +1
Florida Times Union – Romney +4             
Average: Romney +2.8%

So now, let's do a quick exercise. Using the last three Presidential elections as our baseline we'll arrive at a baseline for the election, then arrive at a prediction including Independents.

Florida Turnout: 2008 - Democrat +3 - 2004 - Republican +4% - 2000 - Democrat +2% = D +1 average

Furthermore, Florida has 23% Registered Independents. So we're going to use as our hypothetical turnout model for Florida 39% Democrat, 38% Republican and 23% Independent.

Using that turnout model, and figuring in an average of Romney winning independents of 2.8% over Obama; assuming that Romney wins 90% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats; also assuming Obama wins 90% of Democrats at 10% of Republicans, the result would be Romney winning 52.4% and Obama winning 47.6% of the total vote. That means Romney would win Florida's 29 Electoral Votes.

Ohio Turnout: 2008 - Democrat +8% - 2004 Republican +5% - 2000 Democrat +1% = Democrat +4% 

Using that turnout model, and figuring in an average of Romney winning independents of 2.8% over Obama; assuming that Romney wins 90% of Republicans and 10% of Democrats; also assuming Obama wins 90% of Democrats at 10% of Republicans, the result would be Romney winning 50.3% and Obama winning 48.7%% of the total vote. That means Romney would win Ohio's 18 Electoral Votes.

Source: Media Ignore Independents' Swing Toward Romney

CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

Warning: The first part of this post includes large quantities of sarcasm.

According to a CBS/New York Times poll of Ohio, Florida and Pennsylvania. IT'S OVER. Obama has opened up a huge lead in the poll. Governor Mitt Romney should just give up now, because it's just a waste of time.

The results are these:

Florida: Obama 53%, Romney 44% (Obama +9%)

Ohio: Obama 53%, Romney 43% (Obama +10%)

Pennsylvania: Obama 54%, Romney 42% (Obama +12%)

It is OVER. Right? Come on. Obama's doing GREAT in those three critical states!

What? You want me to look past Page One? You want the poll sample? Okay, let's look at that:

Florida:  Democrat 36%, Republican 27%, Independent 33% (Democrat +9%)

Ohio: Democrat 35%, Republican 26%, Independent 35% (Democrat +9%)

Pennsylvania: Democrat 39%, Republican 29%, Independent 27% (Democrat +10%)

WHOA! That doesn't sound right, does it? I mean, surely there must be data from the last Presidential elections, right? Oh wait, there is:

Florida Turnout: 2008 - Democrat +3 - 2004 - Republican +4% - 2000 - Democrat +2%.

(Note: NEVER near a 9% Democrat advantage.)

Ohio Turnout: 2008 - Democrat +8% - 2004 Republican +5% - 2000 Democrat +1%

(Note: not a 9% turnout even in the Democrat sweep in '08.)

(Could not locate Pennsylvania data).

Now here's some cold water for you Democrats, as if basic math doesn't do it. If Obama has such a commanding lead in these states, why campaign there? Please, explain. I mean, Obama has a commanding lead in New York, and I don't see him campaigning there.

Bottom line is Obama is in real trouble. The Drive-By Media wouldn't be using these preposterous samples if he wasn't. The only plausible explanation is an attempt to suppress and repress Republican votes to make Obama's chances better. Because here in the Real World, they just aren't that good.