RCP Avg Strikes Again with Misleading Polls - This Time in Ohio

According to the Real Clear Politics Average in Ohio, the President is leading Governor Romney by 1.7% in the so-called "poll of polls." As I've said before, I am willing to at least give RCP the benefit of the doubt, but still, this average includes four polls that either by accident or design use highly Democrat skewed polls:

RCP is using four polls with skewed samples:

Survey USA, uses a +7% Democrat sample to get Obama to +3%. If we unskew that data to a +3% Democrat Sample, using Survey USA's own internal data of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents are polling, we find Romney with a slight lead of 44.7% to Obama's 44.0%

CBS/Quinnipiac, uses a +9% Democrat Sample to get Obama to +5%. If we unskew that to a +3% Democrat sample, and using CBS/Quinnipiac's own data, we find Obama's lead has cut to one tenth of the poll's prediction to 0.5%: Obama 45.8% to Romney 45.3%

Gravis Marketing used a sample of +9% Democrat, and that showed a tie. If we unskew it to a +3% Democrat sample and use Gravis' own internal data,

The PPP and Fox News polls could not be accurately unskewed because they did not publish their internal data did not provide the necessary breakdowns of how Republicans, Democrats and Independents intended to vote.

So apparently Obama is in fact losing Ohio, very slightly. This makes a difference. Lets look at the RCP "No Tossup" Map, shall we? This is the map using the skewed Ohio sample:

Now let's look at the map using our new data that unskews the samples to +3% Democrat instead of +7-9% Democrat:

One other issue for the President is he's at an average of 46.3%. Well below 50%. Historically you see undecided voters this late (12 days before the election) swing hard to the challenger. I'll even be generous and call it 2:1 for Romney. When that happens it's 51.7% Romney, 48.3% Obama.

Bottom line, exactly what I've been telling you is true: the RCP average, when a Drive-By Media source throws a wrench into the mix and skews the average, it spoils the entire sample. Here in reality, Romney is winning. And that's all that matters.

If the Obama Campaign Isn't Worried, They Should Be

Sorry so late today, Biblical Conservatives! Had a personal issue that kept me on the shelf all morning, but here's today's dose of Biblical Conservatism!

Despite what a few Drive-By Media skewed polls are now showing, Obama had better start worrying.

Let's start with a few reasons:

- Florida is now clearly moving to Romney's territory. A Rasmussen Poll released on Friday shows Romney leading Obama by 5% and over 50%.

- North Carolina is now being considered by Real Clear Politics as no longer a tossup but in the Romney column.

- Virginia is becoming more and more clearly in the Romney camp. It's been two full weeks since a poll showed Obama leading in Virginia.

- The Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" now puts all three of these three states in the Romney camp.

- The Real Clear Politics Electoral Map shows Romney leading Obama (map does not include any tossup states).

- Except for one anomalous poll (same poll in both), Iowa and Wisconsin are within the margin of error.

- A new poll now has Romney winning Pennsylvania by 4%.


- So many voters remain undecided at this stage in the game, and historically, undecideds break hard for the challenger.

- One final note. Two weeks ago, the Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" looked like this:

Today it looks like this:

No amount of tiny poll fluctuations will change the fact that the President should be worried. VERY worried, because Mitt Romney is on the precipice of victory in 15 days.



Since tonight is the final Presidential debate, tomorrow's article will go up about 1 pm EST. Thanks for reading!

Scenarios for a Romney Electoral College Win

 The above image is the Real Clear Politics "No Tossups" Map as of Monday, October 15th.  (The only adjustment that has been made is a color change to Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire as they are officially "tossups.")  What I did last week on the Biblical Conservatism Facebook Page is show a few scenarios to show Mitt Romney's path to victory.

       

Scenario One: Romney wins a few small states plus Virginia. While the RCP average has Obama still winning in Virginia but it includes a Quinnipiac poll that includes a +3% Democrat sample in a state with a +3% Republican registration advantage and a PPP Poll that uses a +6% Democrat sample. Throw those two polls out you get Romney winning by 2% in Virginia. Combine that with the fact that Suffolk University has decided VA is over and expects Romney to win, we'll call Virginia safe for Romney. Combine that with three small statesL Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada (all three of which the Obama lead is within the margin for error) and Romney wins.

In this scenario, Mitt wins Virgina (which we've established already is likely) and Ohio. That's all he would need to win the Electoral College. Anything else is gravy that helps build a mandate. 

What if Mitt Romney doesn't win Ohio? Then what? Some are continually reminding us, no Republican in recent memory has won the White House without Ohio. However, there is a simple scenario where Romney can win without Ohio. Simply put, if Mitt wins Virginia (which we've established is likely) and then wins Wisconsin (or Michigan, or Pennsylvania) and either Nevada or Iowa.

Now we look at a very likely scenario. Many voters remain undecided a mere three weeks from Election Day.  History has shown that undecided voters break for the challenger and break hard. The above scenario involves a 3:1 break in Romney's favor. The result is a huge win for Governor Romney.  It's not an unrealistic scenario, friends. In fact it's a highly realistic scenario. In these states the Real Clear Politics average has only one of these states with Obama at 50%, and that's Wisconsin (he's at exactly 50% by the way, and there's a margin for error.) In this case, Mitt gains Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia by winning 75% of undecided voters.

Even using the Real Clear Politics average (which we've discussed is not exactly the most reliable way to judge the race) it becomes clear Mitt Romney has a path to victory that is easy to see. President Obama has less options. Despite the narrative being attempted bythe Left recently, the Romney path to victory is clear.

Gallup State Shows Obama Likely a One Term President

To my regular readers: In an effort to provide quality analysis on the Colorado, Minnesota and Missouri contests from February 7th, I decided to wait to post my reactions until tomorrow, allowing solid numbers to be in place.  Thank you as always for reading Biblical Conservatism!

Time again for some good, hard numbers, and my friends, for those of us who want to see Obama as a one term President, the numbers are encouraging. While the Drive-By Media is muddled in national polls or head to head matchups (which don't really matter until the candidate is chosen),

Real Clear Politics has their current electoral map with ten states currently solidly in Obama's camp (worth 175 Electoral Votes) and another five leaning Obama; and twenty states currently solidly in the Republican camp (worth 159 Electoral Votes).  There are a couple erroneous predictions in my estimation, however, in the "Lean Obama" camp that I believe are worth noting as well as a couple in the "Tossup" category that I believe lean Republican.

RCP is claiming that Oregonn (7 electoral votes) and New Mexico (5 electoral votes) lean Obama.  Based on Gallup's 2011 Job Approval - State by State, however, the President's approval rating is 44% and 46% in those two states, respectively.  Hard to say states with disapproval that is higher than approval will lean to Obama, don't you think?  So I'm considering their electoral votes as leaning Republican.  It's also hard to say that Michigan (16) and Maine (4) can legitimately be called "leaning Obama" when his approval rating is 50% there (a genuine tossup).  Finally, RCP calls Ohio (18) and Florida (29) as tossups, but in both those states again Obama's approval is several points lower than his disapproval, so I think we can call those lean Republican as well, as can Virginia (13) and North Carolina (15) who also have Obama's approval ratings well under water.

So let's give an honest comparison, shall we?

Strong Obama

California (55)
Connecticut (7)
Delaware (3)
Dist. of Columbia (3)
Hawaii (4)
Illinois (20)
Maryland (10)
Massachusetts (11)
New Jersey (14)
New York (29)
Rhode Island (4)
Vermont (3)
Washington (12)

Lean Obama

Minnesota (10)

True Tossups

Wisconsin (10)
Michigan (16)
Iowa (6)
Pennsylvania (20)
Florida (29)


Lean Republican

Colorado (9) *
Nevada (6) *
New Hampshire (4) *
North Carolina (15) *
Ohio (18) *
Virginia (13) *
Arizona (11)
Indiana (11)
Missouri (10)

Strong Republican

Alabama (9)
Alaska (3)
Arkansas (6)
Georgia (16)
Idaho (4)
Kansas (6)
Kentucky (8)
Louisiana (8)
Mississippi (6)
Montana (3)
Nebraska (5)
North Dakota (3)
Oklahoma (7)
South Carolina (9)
South Dakota (3)
Tennessee (11)
Texas (38)
Utah (6)
West Virginia (5)
Wyoming (3)

* These States have been moved to the lean Republican column due to Obama's approval ratings being 46% or less with disapproval rates above his approval number.

So, with these more honest numbers, the Republican nominee is looking at 256 Electoral Votes, Obama is looking at 185 Electoral Votes, and only 81 are tossups.  A few important details: Even if the President gets a clean sweep of the five true tossup states, he's still four electoral votes shy of winning. Meanwhile, the Republican nominee is only 14 votes shy of winning.  So if the GOP nominee can win any two of the five tossup states, they will win.

At any rate, we're looking at a one-term Obama Presidency.  Thank you, God.