If the Obama Campaign Isn't Worried, They Should Be

Sorry so late today, Biblical Conservatives! Had a personal issue that kept me on the shelf all morning, but here's today's dose of Biblical Conservatism!

Despite what a few Drive-By Media skewed polls are now showing, Obama had better start worrying.

Let's start with a few reasons:

- Florida is now clearly moving to Romney's territory. A Rasmussen Poll released on Friday shows Romney leading Obama by 5% and over 50%.

- North Carolina is now being considered by Real Clear Politics as no longer a tossup but in the Romney column.

- Virginia is becoming more and more clearly in the Romney camp. It's been two full weeks since a poll showed Obama leading in Virginia.

- The Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" now puts all three of these three states in the Romney camp.

- The Real Clear Politics Electoral Map shows Romney leading Obama (map does not include any tossup states).

- Except for one anomalous poll (same poll in both), Iowa and Wisconsin are within the margin of error.

- A new poll now has Romney winning Pennsylvania by 4%.


- So many voters remain undecided at this stage in the game, and historically, undecideds break hard for the challenger.

- One final note. Two weeks ago, the Real Clear Politics "No Tossup Map" looked like this:

Today it looks like this:

No amount of tiny poll fluctuations will change the fact that the President should be worried. VERY worried, because Mitt Romney is on the precipice of victory in 15 days.



Since tonight is the final Presidential debate, tomorrow's article will go up about 1 pm EST. Thanks for reading!

Swing State Polls are as Cooked as the National Polls (Part 2)

The Drive-By Media spent last week telling us it was absolutely over. Obama has a commanding lead in the Swing States. He's going to win, they tell us. The current Real Clear Politics average shows Obama with 269 electoral votes either strongly, likely or leaning his way. So they say.

There was a day they would get away with this. We talked about a few of these cooked Swing State polls last week:

Biblical Conservatism: CBS is Now Cooking Swing State Polls

So let's continue to look at where other polls are being cooked, shall we?


Wisconsin - RCP Avg: Obama + 6.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample D+6%

Wisconsin Voter Registration: +4% Democrat

- For Public Policy Polling to get Obama to +7% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

- For NBC to get Obama to +5% they had to oversample Democrats by +5%

- For CBS to get Obama to +6%, they had to oversample Democrats by +8%.

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)

Virginia - RCP Avg Obama +3.7% - Avg Democrat Oversample +3% Democrat

Virginia Voter Registration: +3% Republican- For NBC to get Obama to +2%, they had to oversample Democrats by +4%.

- For Suffolk to get Obama to +2% they had to oversample Democrats by +3%

(Other polls were included in this average, however they did not publish their samples.)


In Wisconsin, to get Obama to a +6.7% average lead they had to oversample Democrats by an average of 6%. Again, assuming 90% of undersampled Republicans reweighted will give you a much smaller Obama lead of 1.1%, well within the margin of error.

In Virginia, when you take that 3.7% lead and the 3% oversample of Democrats to get to even (or 6% oversample of Democrats against

Reactions to the Wisconsin Recall Election

Tuesday, Scott Walker handily won the Recall Election in Wisconsin, as did Walker's Lieutenant Governor, Rebecca Kleefisch. The final result was Walker winning 53% to 45% and Kleefisch winning 53% to 46%. While it was hardly a landslide, it was most certainly a comfortable victory for both. Furthermore, of the GOP State Senators who were subject to a recall, three of four won by comfortable margins and the fourth is so close it hasn't been called yet.

Liberals, of course, are throwing fits. They're claiming the Koch brothers did it, this was a victory of "Citizens United over citizens of Wisconsin," claiming that Wisconsin just "refused change." Actually, Wisconsin did vote for change...it was conservative change to fiscal responsibility. According to liberals, this isn't change...because the only real change that counts is becoming more liberal (just ask them!) so when a state votes to be more fiscally responsible it doesn't count.  More importantly, the citizens of Wisconsin...the very employers of these public sector unions, did speak.  They just spoke in favor of conservative government.
The result was in stark contrast to the exit polls that were released at 9 pm. CNN's exit polling, for example, claimed that the recall was tied.  I guess there was a little 8% whoops in their exit polling, huh?  When the polls closed, all news outlets I could find said the race was "too close to call." That's interesting, considering the margin of victory, and how close that margin was to the Real Clear Politics Poll average pre-election.

And yet the Drive-By Media is claiming that, according to the same exit polls that claimed the recall race was tied and too close to call, that President Obama has a commanding lead over Governor Mitt Romney in the 2012 general election.  If nothing else, this election should show, once again, that exit polls are essentially useless. 

What do we take from this big win for conservatism?

One, as I just said, this tells us that exit polls are pointless. We can all conject as to why this is true: Perhaps it's because the Drive-By Media is using it's usual, wonderfully bad polling samples, or perhaps it's simply that Democrats are more likely to participate in an exit poll than Republicans?  Either way, for the last eight years, these polls have shown to be very unreliable. (Remember in 2004, when Bob Shrum said "Let me be the first to call you Mr. President" to John Kerry?)

Two, this tells us that Wisconsin is committed to fiscal restraint!  People are getting it. Conservatism works, and when conservatism is genuinely put into practice, it wins. Heck, Governor Walker GAINED GROUND from his 2010 election in this recall. 

Three, irregardless of the Drive-By Media using the very same exit polls that were so patently wrong about the results for the recall, it shows that Barrack Obama is indeed vulnerable in Wisconsin. Why would the same people who upheld their election of Governor Walker and, presumably, validate his fiscal reforms, then turn around and sweep to victory the very President who has absolutely refused to consider reforms of this nature at all?  Answer: They likely won't. And that my friends, is the best news the Wisconsin recall could present.