Obama's Slight Bump Means Nothing in November

After the Obamacare Decision, President Obama's polling numbers against Mitt Romney have bumped a couple of points. That's really it, a couple points. We've seen these quick bumps for Obama before. We've also seen these quick bumps fall off the end of the Earth again.

We saw it when Barack Obama gave the order to kill Osama Bin Laden. He bumped up above 50% and stayed there...for about a week. Then he fell back down below 50% and to the doldrums. He's crept above Romney for now. He's even seen a couple of polls where his projected win is outside the margin for error (unfortunately for the President, except for a highly questionable and anomalous Bloomberg poll, they were all with Registered Voters not Likely Voters.) But really, that's all the bump the President has seen is a couple of points.

Obamacare remains unpopular. As has been the case for most of the law's life, about 10% more disapprove of the law than approve of it. Obama himself remains unpopular. Using the three Likely Voter Polls in the current Real Clear Politics Average, Obama has 46% approval and 51% disapproval. Even when we add in the two polls of Registered Voters, Obama only creeps up to 47% approval with 49% disapproval. Only when RCP adds in five polls of "adults" does Obama get over 50% approval...and as I've said before, if you're going to poll adults you might as well also poll Martians and kodiak bears, because they have absolutely as much say in elections as people who aren't registered to vote.

So what does Obama have to look forward to in a "bump?" Unless Obama convinces Hillary Clinton to be his running mate and dumps Joe Biden, he doesn't have THAT to boost him. (Meanwhile, unless Romney manages to completely and utterly screw it up, Romney can gain 5-10 points in the polls by his Vice Presidential pick.) The so-called "Convention Bump" might help Obama, but that bump rarely stays, an d since it comes after the Republican Convention, it can only really regain losses from the Republican Convention.

Friends, the President is still in trouble. Only Mitt Romney imploding (by being too moderate or too wimpy) can get Obama re-elected.  Otherwise, the recent Supreme Court decision on Obamacare will become academic, as the Republican Party is about to win the 2012 election. Game on.