Friends, I know we all spent the last few days feeling bad about the Supreme Court's Obamacare Decision. I did too, I won't lie. It took me a few hours to realize that there is still a solution because We the People control this government. And since Obamacare doesn't go into effect until January, we can absolutely get it out of the way before it can do real damage.
Now let's talk about this election, shall we? Romney and Obama have been basically tied in polls of likely voters for quite some time. Romney's biggest problem? A lack of enthusiasm. As I wrote last week, the Obamacare decision awoke the sleeping giant that is the Tea Party. We are now heavily behind Romney and will fight very hard for him.
Now to the Senate. The Senate deck is stacked in the favor of the GOP just based on the number of elections. Currently the Democrat caucus (which includes 2 Independents who caucus with the Democrats) hold a six seat lead in the Senate. For those of you who think this is tough to beat, look at the actual seats up for election.
There are a total of 33 Senate seats up for grabs in 2012. Of those 33 seats, on 10 are part of the Republican caucus! So 23 of 33 seats up for grabs in 2012 are part of the Democrat Caucus. Compare that to 2010 where there were 37 seats up for grab but with a nearly even split - 18 Republican and 19 Democrat. The Republicans had a +6 net gain out of that election. Translation, the GOP won approximately 65% of the seats in the election.
If the GOP can mirror 2012 (a reasonable possibility given the political climate) and win 65% of total seats up for grabs, that would mean a 9 seat swing and the Republicans taking back the Senate with a +3 margin of victory. I'll even tell you what I think the best 9 seats to pickup would be for the GOP: Florida, Ohio, Michigan, Pennyslyvania, North Dakota, Virginia, Nebraska, New Mexico, and Wisconsin are all swing states where Romney could conceivably win. I would go so far as to say I feel comfortable about winning North Dakota, Virginia, and Wisconsin (because of how Scott Walker won his recall challenge). The others are all plausible pickups.
As far as the House of Representatives is concerned, as long as the GOP does no worse than a net loss of 48 seats, we can repeal Obamacare. This is really not a big concern. Then we need new President Romney to use the bully pulpit to get scare the tar out of Senators to vote on the the repeal. After that, Ding Dong the Law is Dead!
But all this is conditional. We need to fight the good fight and repeal Obamacare.
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