Yesterday, a Washington Post/ABC Poll came out. The results were staggering, especially when one looks at the skew in the overall polling sample to favor Obama.
A few things to note: This is a poll of Registered Voters, not Likely Voters. By the polls own admission (page 7 of the poll breakdown) only 79% of the individuals polled are either certain to vote or will probably vote. So more than 20% of the people polled won't show up to vote. Then there was the polling sample. The sample of personal identification with a party (note: not party registration) was: Democrat - 33%, Independent - 36% and Republican - 24%. So a 9% advantage of Democrats over Republicans.
Compare that to Rassmussen's recent survey asking people of their personal party identification (again, not registration) was Republican - 33%, Democrat - 31%, and Independent - 28%. So to do a direct comparison, the Washington Post oversampled Democrats by 2%, undersampled Republicans by 9% and oversampled Independents by 8%. Either way, it's a massive swing of 11% in the favor of Obama. So that would explain how Obama manages to remain tied with Romney given his massive loss with Independents, which we will now mention.
According to the Washington Post/ABC Poll, specifically with the sample of Independents polled only (so the sample skew doesn't matter...this particular published finding is a sample of 100% independents so it doesn't matter if Independents were oversampled in the overall poll): Romney is beating President Obama 43% to 37%. To compare, in 2008, Obama won Independents 52% to 44% for John McCain (not sure who the other 4% voted for?).
Bottom line here is this: if Obama loses Independents, he loses the White House. It's just that simple. Without winning independents Obama does not have a prayer. Putting aside the underhanded oversampling of Democrats by the Washington Post and ABC (which this blogger has come to expect), we can look at the individual samples of party indentification and see that self-identified Independents are not planning to vote for President Obama.
So unless the Democrat Party somehow manages to cook the electorate (not so subtle voter-fraud reference) Obama's in trouble. Which is what I've been saying all along. Game on.
- ► 2013 (118)
- Best of Biblical Conservatism: Explaining the Cons...
- a way of traveling
- Best of Biblical Conservatism: Comparing Obama's D...
- is this still necessary?
- Obama's Numbers Drop...Quick, Cook a Poll!
- After CO Massacre, We Do Not Need More Gun Control...
- doesn't the fact that i want to please you... plea...
- Shock of Shocks! Obama Campaign Deficit Spending!
- Understanding Infrastructure in Government Of, By,...
- Obama Claims He Didn't Say "You Didn't Build That"...
- what a stay-at-home Mom is worth
- Obama Back Pedals as Romney Advances
- Dissecting the Liberal Talking Points: The Wealthy...
- it shouldn't be this way
- Dissecting Obama's Rhetoric: If You Succeed, It's ...
- Obama Camp Slanders Romney, Refuses to Apologize
- how i want to live after i make a mistake
- Dissecting Obama's Talking Points: Taxes (Part 2)
- Dissecting Obama's Talking Points: Taxes (Pt 1)
- you can do this
- WaPo Poll - Obama Losing Independents, Tied With R...
- the most humble man on the face of the earth (part...
- Shock of Shocks - Obama Wants to Raise Taxes
- "... than anyone else on the face of the earth."
- Tax or Fine? Doesn't matter. Obamacare is Bad for ...
- "But I was afraid to be Roger's friend..."
- teams that work (repost)
- Rumor Mill: Romney Could Pick a Female VP?
- Obama's Slight Bump Means Nothing in November
- Obamacare Still Can Be Overturned...At the Ballot ...
- what i learn from reading (almost) all the way to ...
- Obamacare's "Taxes" Are Really Fines
- ▼ July (32)
- ► 2011 (316)
(i originally wrote and posted this to renown on September 1, 2009. Last night we kicked off 30 days of fasting at Ridge Church. Begging God...
(This was originally written & posted to renown on June 1, 2010.) I was driving home from my soccer game last night and near my neighbo...
(i originally wrote and posted this to renown on June 30, 2010.) These 2 people live in Bulgeta, Ethiopia. i don't know their names. T...
Today was going to be the day I announced a hiatus from blogging to give more time to preparing for my upcoming wedding...then my good frien...
that's a pretty creative & original title for this post, don't you think? it's crazy, but 1,000 times i have written some th...