Another detail we can glean is the difference between registered voter polls and likely voter polls. Ignoring how clearly doctored two of the included registered voter polls are, the average of registered voter polls is Obama 46%, Romney 44%. But likely voter polls from the Real Clear Politics (RCP) average is Romney 48% to Obama's 46%. That means a net swing for Romney of +4% once we go from registered voters to likely voters!
Then there's that once in a while poll that someone tries to put up that asks all adults, regardless of if they're even eligible to vote.National Journal did that a few weeks back. They found in a poll of adults that 47% preferred Obama to 39% who preferred Romney. But this was just plain adults! What percentage weren't even registered to vote? Let's compare.
Please note the following polls are 2 plus weeks old. We're just giving a baseline comparison.
That week, the average of polls of registered voters showed the President beating Governor Romney 47.625% to 44.75% (within the typical margin for error). The one poll off likely voters showed Governor Romney beating President Obama 47% to 44%.
So to look at the swing, the margins went from +8% for Obama with all adults to about +3% in favor of the President with registered voters but a +3% victory for Governor Romney over the President with likely voters.
So when you go from adults to to likely voters, you go from a +8% victory for Obama with adults (including people who don't get to vote because they aren't registered) to a +3% victory for Governor Romney with the people who are likely to show the heck up to vote.
This is yet another example of liberal poll doctoring, friends. They are using the groupings that are most favorable to the President followed by using polling samples that are skewed toward Democrats.
Here's the bottom line, as I discussed yesterday. The Drive-By Media wants to dishearten conservatives and Republicans. They want us to believe Obama will be re-elected and we might as well give up. But the reality is Obama is very weak and is highly vunerable for electoral defeat. Don't believe the hype. Or the cooked polls. Obama is expecting defeat in 2012. We should too.
- ► 2013 (118)
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