Obama's Losing the Youth

Something that you won't see in polls that use "adults" or "registered voters," mind you, but Obama's losing the youth vote.  Don't get me wrong, friends...the youth still support Obama. There's just one key issue...a huge chunk of them AREN'T PLANNING ON SHOWING UP TO VOTE!

44%, to be specific, of registered voters 18-29 years old, do not necessarily plan to vote, according to a Gallup Poll from last week.  The same youth who flocked to vote for Obama have apparently lost interest. It turns out actually political concepts and policy ideas are not as attractive to young adults as "Yes We Can" and "Change." It also turns out that you can't wax intellectual about "change" when you've had three years and things haven't changed...at least not for the better.

Make no mistake about it, friends, Obama NEEDS the youth vote. Mitt Romney, in kind, needs the senior citizen vote. Good news on that front: 86% of that group (registered voters 65+) intend to vote...and plan to vote for Romney by a 12% margin over Obama. The type of people who are likely to vote for Romney are reliable. Obama's base...not so much.

This of course demonstrates why polls of adults and registered voters are less reliable: Not everyone will show up to vote. The more one leans toward a Republican candidate, the more they are likely to show up. If you look at the polls where Obama does the best, it's a poll of adults, or registered voters. He loses more and more support the more likely the voter gets.

It's early, friends, and Romney has barely started his campaign against Obama. But Obama is already looking very weak in this election. Losing the youth vote just proves it further.