Scenarios for a Romney Electoral College Win

 The above image is the Real Clear Politics "No Tossups" Map as of Monday, October 15th.  (The only adjustment that has been made is a color change to Nevada, Iowa, Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, Virginia, and New Hampshire as they are officially "tossups.")  What I did last week on the Biblical Conservatism Facebook Page is show a few scenarios to show Mitt Romney's path to victory.

Scenario One: Romney wins a few small states plus Virginia. While the RCP average has Obama still winning in Virginia but it includes a Quinnipiac poll that includes a +3% Democrat sample in a state with a +3% Republican registration advantage and a PPP Poll that uses a +6% Democrat sample. Throw those two polls out you get Romney winning by 2% in Virginia. Combine that with the fact that Suffolk University has decided VA is over and expects Romney to win, we'll call Virginia safe for Romney. Combine that with three small statesL Iowa, New Hampshire and Nevada (all three of which the Obama lead is within the margin for error) and Romney wins.

In this scenario, Mitt wins Virgina (which we've established already is likely) and Ohio. That's all he would need to win the Electoral College. Anything else is gravy that helps build a mandate. 

What if Mitt Romney doesn't win Ohio? Then what? Some are continually reminding us, no Republican in recent memory has won the White House without Ohio. However, there is a simple scenario where Romney can win without Ohio. Simply put, if Mitt wins Virginia (which we've established is likely) and then wins Wisconsin (or Michigan, or Pennsylvania) and either Nevada or Iowa.

Now we look at a very likely scenario. Many voters remain undecided a mere three weeks from Election Day.  History has shown that undecided voters break for the challenger and break hard. The above scenario involves a 3:1 break in Romney's favor. The result is a huge win for Governor Romney.  It's not an unrealistic scenario, friends. In fact it's a highly realistic scenario. In these states the Real Clear Politics average has only one of these states with Obama at 50%, and that's Wisconsin (he's at exactly 50% by the way, and there's a margin for error.) In this case, Mitt gains Michigan, Nevada, Ohio, Pennsylvania and Virginia by winning 75% of undecided voters.

Even using the Real Clear Politics average (which we've discussed is not exactly the most reliable way to judge the race) it becomes clear Mitt Romney has a path to victory that is easy to see. President Obama has less options. Despite the narrative being attempted bythe Left recently, the Romney path to victory is clear.